Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve making zero 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026 on Polymarket has risen to 58%, up 9% in the past 24 hours. To date, the total trading volume for the prediction event “How many 25-basis-point rate cuts will the Federal Reserve make in 2026?” has approached $22 million.
The contract rules for this event are: settlement will be based on the number of actual 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts made at the December meeting. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points in a single meeting, it will be counted as two separate 25-basis-point cuts. Emergency rate cuts outside of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) scheduled meetings will also count toward the total number of rate cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. If the specified number of rate cuts cannot be achieved, the market will settle early as “No.”
Following the release of U.S. economic data today, U.S. interest rate futures indicate a slight increase in market expectations for a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026.
Odaily Seer continuously monitors prediction markets to see changes before pricing.