Polymarket probability of Hormuz Strait normalization by June 30 drops to 25%

ME News reports that, as of June 1 (UTC+8), Odaily Seer’s prediction channel monitored that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before June 30 has dropped to 25%, a weekly decline of 25%. To date, the total trading volume for this event has approached $12 million. The contract terms for this event are as follows: If the IMF Portwatch publishes, at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, that the 7-day average number of vessels arriving at the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60, the market will resolve as “Yes”; otherwise, it will resolve as “No.” Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be counted. U.S. and Iranian forces recently experienced renewed tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. However, earlier today, Trump stated that negotiations with Iran over a temporary peace agreement “will turn out well.” He faces potential criticism if Washington unfreezes billions of dollars of Iranian funds at Tehran’s request, requiring him to balance these competing pressures. Last Friday, Trump initially indicated he would make a “final decision,” but as negotiations continue over details such as Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Hormuz waterway—potentially requiring mine clearance—he has postponed that decision. Odaily Seer’s prediction channel continues to monitor prediction markets to see changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)