Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before June 30 has dropped to 25%, a weekly decline of 25%. To date, the total trading volume for this event has approached $12 million.
The event contract rules state: If the IMF Portwatch reports, on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, that the 7-day average number of vessels arriving at the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60, the market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No." Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
U.S. and Iranian forces previously clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump indicated earlier today that negotiations for an interim peace agreement with Iran “will turn out well.” He must balance this against potential criticism he may face if Washington unfreezes billions of dollars of Iranian funds at Tehran’s request. Last Friday, Trump initially stated he would make a “final decision,” but he has delayed that decision as both sides continue negotiating details such as Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—possibly requiring mine clearance first.
Odaily Seer continuously monitors prediction markets to see changes before pricing.