Polymarket probability of a Fed rate cut before the June FOMC drops 11% in 24 hours to 28%

KuCoinFlash

Release Time: 03/14/2026 02:05:42

Summary

Fed news shows the probability of a rate cut before the June FOMC meeting on Polymarket fell 11% in 24 hours to 28%, with the event’s volume nearing $1.8 million. Odds had previously risen to 39%. The decline follows higher core PCE data, which weakens the case for a dovish Fed. Market expectations now point to 25-basis-point cuts in September 2026 and March 2027, pushing back from June and September 2026. Traders are also monitoring altcoins amid shifting rate forecasts.

Odaily Planet Daily reports: According to monitoring by Odaily Seer, the probability of the event "the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting" on Polymarket has dropped 11% over the past 24 hours, currently standing at 28%, after previously peaking at 39%. Trading volume for this event has reached nearly $1.8 million.

Previously, the continued rise in core PCE was unfavorable for the Fed's dovish stance. Additionally, the Fed is now expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 and March 2027, whereas earlier forecasts predicted cuts in June and September of this year.

Odaily Seer's prediction channel continuously monitors prediction markets to spot changes before pricing occurs.

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