Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of the “Claude Mythos model releasing in April” on Polymarket has plummeted to 28%, a 26% drop over the past seven days, with approximately $42,000 in wagered funds. The probability for the “Claude Mythos model releasing in June” is currently at 53%, with approximately $11,600 in wagered funds. The event contract rules state: if Anthropic releases the “Claude Mythos” model or confirms it as identical to the model mentioned in the leak, and the model becomes publicly available on the specified date (Eastern Time), this market will resolve as “Yes.” Otherwise, it will resolve as “No.” Eligible models must be named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, all qualify), or be confirmed as identical to the model referenced in the leak, or be confirmed by consensus through credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count unless confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve as “Yes,” the eligible model (as defined above) must be launched and made publicly accessible, including via open beta or open waitlist enrollment. Closed testing or any form of private access does not qualify.
Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors prediction markets to see changes before pricing.