Odaily Planet Daily reports that bettors on the prediction market Polymarket anticipate that SpaceX’s market capitalization at its public listing will almost certainly exceed $1 trillion, with a 73% probability of surpassing $2 trillion. These bets are tied to SpaceX’s closing market capitalization on its first day of trading. The company plans to list in June, with an expected valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion.
Additionally, data from Polymarket shows a 17% probability that its market capitalization will exceed $3 trillion and a 2% probability it will surpass $4 trillion. The prediction platform launched markets on SpaceX’s market cap approximately two weeks ago, but current trading volumes for these contracts remain light, suggesting skepticism among participants regarding these probabilities. If SpaceX’s market cap were to truly exceed $2 trillion, it would surpass at least two of the seven major U.S. tech stocks: Meta Platforms (META.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O), whose current market caps are approximately $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively. (Jin10)