According to ME News, on July 21 (UTC+8), the probability of the Strait of Mandeb closing before August 31 rose to 21% on the prediction market platform Polymarket, up from a low of 11% earlier Monday; the probability of closure before September 30 briefly reached 26%. The Houthi group Ansar Allah in Yemen announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating the action is based on the principle of “an eye for an eye” and aims to disrupt Saudi crude oil exports. The affected shipping routes involve over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The outcome of this prediction contract will be determined by maritime trade flow data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Mandeb falls to 10 or below on any day between contract creation and expiration, the contract will be settled as “Yes.” (Source: ODAILY)
Polymarket Predicts 21% Chance of Strait of Mandeb Closure by End of August
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Summary
Polymarket shows a 21% chance of the Strait of Mandeb closing by August 31, up from 11% earlier this week. On-chain data reflects growing concerns over Yemeni Houthi blockades targeting Saudi oil exports. The probability of closure by September 30 has also risen to 26%. The contract outcome will be determined by IMF PortWatch vessel arrival data. Traders monitoring altcoins to watch may see ripple effects from shipping disruptions.
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