Polymarket Partners with Dow Jones to Integrate Prediction Market Data into Mainstream News

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Dingdong (@XiaMiPP)

Recently, prediction market platform Polymarket has reached an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media Group. According to the agreement, real-time prediction probabilities provided by Polymarket will be integrated into all consumer platforms under Dow Jones.UniqueThe source of the predictive market data adopted covers multiple sections, including its dedicated data modules, event pages, and customized earnings calendars.

The Dow Jones Media Group owns renowned financial media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Barron's, and MarketWatch. Among these, the Wall Street Journal is one of the most trusted media sources in global financial information dissemination. This means that in the future, ordinary readers browsing the news will not only see traditional expert analyses or opinion polls, but will also have access to probability-based predictions rooted in "collective intelligence," covering a wide range of scenarios including elections, economic trends, and even cultural issues.

Furthermore, this collaboration is expected to bring new changes to the way news is reported: the prediction market as aA tool to supplement "truth," presenting a set of probabilistic outcomes formed through real capital competition.Provide the public with a more comprehensive and immediate reference for trend analysis.

Unlike general media collaborations, the symbolic significance of partnering with the Dow Jones Group may be far greater than the traffic or exposure it brings. As one of the world's most influential financial news organizations, the primary audience of Dow Jones' media outlets is not the general public, but institutional investors, professional traders, high-net-worth individuals, and policy and business decision-makers. This determines that its content system has always been characterized by prudence, conservatism, and verifiability, with extremely strict criteria for selecting information sources.

From this perspective, the systematic embedding of Polymarket's predictive data into The Wall Street Journal represents not only an integration at the product level, but also a form of recognition:Prediction markets are no longer just entertainment or speculative tools, but have become information sources with a certain level of reference value.At least within the Dow Jones editorial system, it has been placed in the context of "serious news," rather than gambling or marginalized platforms.

In fact, before Polymarket, Kalshi had already partnered with CNN and CNBC in early December. For example, CNN's data analysts would cite Kalshi's real-time probability data in their political and public event coverage, while CNBC displayed Kalshi's branded ticker in some of its programs and integrated related content on its digital platforms. Although these initiatives have brought prediction markets into the public eye, they essentially represent fragmented, multi-party collaborations.

By contrast, Polymarket's protocol represents an exclusive, fully integrated solution: the entire Dow Jones media platform will uniformly adopt Polymarket as its sole data source, with comprehensive embedding spanning from print to digital content. Therefore, Polymarket's exclusive partnership with the Dow Jones Media Group is more extensive and impactful.

Although prediction markets had existed for a few years earlier, they experienced explosive growth only in 2025. Data shows that Polymarket and Kalshi achieved record-breaking performance in 2025, with cumulative trading volumes approaching 4 billionin U.S. dollars, and both companies' valuations reached billions. This leap in scale transformed the prediction market from entertainment speculation into financial infrastructure.

More importantly, during the 2024 U.S. election, Polymarket outperformed traditional polls with high accuracy, especially in swing states. It priced Trump's chances of winning above 95% well in advance, while many polls still showed the race as "neck and neck." Over the past year, prediction markets have further demonstrated through their performance that financial incentives filter out noise, requiring participants to "put their money where their mouths are" when making judgments. As a result, making wrong predictions becomes "costly." It is precisely for this reason that prediction markets have truly earned their place within the mainstream information system. They are no longer simply viewed as "gambling," but rather as an efficient "aggregator of collective intelligence."

However, being accepted by mainstream media does not mean that prediction markets have completed their institutional transformation from "gaming forms" to "financial instruments."

At the regulatory level, there remains a clear divergence of views in this area. Take Kalshi as an example: although it holds relevant licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), some state-level regulators still view prediction contracts as a form of gambling. This is especially the case in Nevada, where legal disputes over their legitimacy continue. Recently, Kalshi lost an initial injunction preventing Nevada regulators from enforcing their actions just before Thanksgiving, and is now seeking a court order to maintain the injunction during its appeal. The lifting of the injunction means that if Kalshi continues to operate in Nevada, it could face legal risks, including being deemed an illegal gambling platform and being prosecuted. Nevada regulators accuse Kalshi of "continuing to engage in illegal activities" without a state gambling license, and have emphasized that similar companies like Crypto.com and Robinhood have agreed to suspend their local operations during the appeal process.

Recently, on Polymarket, a user accurately predicted U.S. actions toward Venezuela, which sparked allegations of insider trading and reignited discussions about the regulatory vacuum in prediction markets. While insider trading is illegal in traditional financial markets, prediction markets like Polymarket currently operate without clear regulations. There is no unified or well-defined mechanism in place to determine whether such behavior constitutes a violation.

Polymarket's collaboration with the Dow Jones does not mean that regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets have been resolved. However, it at least sends a signal: prediction markets are increasingly being recognized by mainstream media as a new information tool, gradually shedding their stigmatized labels as gambling or betting platforms. When the Wall Street Journal starts displaying predictive probabilities, this transformation can no longer be ignored.