Polymarket Odds of NFT Comeback in 2026 Reach 65%

Key Insights

• Polymarket bettors have put the odds of NFT resurgence in 2026 at 65%.
• The sector’s market cap is currently $3 billion, despite falling more than 3% today.
• Beyond optimism, several market participants are pivoting, a sign that NFTs might never make a comeback.

The odds of NFTs making a comeback in 2026 have increased to 65% on the predictions platform Polymarket. This is the highest level ever, suggesting a shift in sentiment surrounding the sector.

The odds on the prediction market platform have risen by 30% over the past week. The event contract already has over $1.12 million in it and is still in effect at the end of the year.

The 65% odds are not surprising given the recent increase in NFT market cap and trading activity. After months of decline since August 2025, the sector is finally showing signs of recovery.

Since 2026 began, the sector’s market cap has exceeded $3 billion. This is driven mostly by the performance of blue-chip projects such as CryptoPunks, Bored Apes, and Pudgy Pigeons.

However, it has fallen by more than 2% over the last 24 hours, along with the broader crypto market. Despite the decline, the sector’s value is still above $3 billion, indicating resilience.

Interestingly, trading volume has also been on the rise. According to CoinGecko, trading volume has increased by 26% over the past 24 hours, reaching $4.5 million.

Meanwhile, the recent positive performance may not convince most people. Even with the gains, most NFTs are still well below their peak floor price. According to CoinGecko, CryptoPunks is down 80% from its 2021 peak, while Bored Apes has lost 95%.

This means that even with the double-digit gains in recent weeks, long-term holders are still in deep loss. The sector market cap is also far from its peak of over $15 billion back in 2022. For it to return to that level, the value would need to increase five times before the year ends.

Many note that the lack of utility remains a core problem for NFTs. Any fundamental shift would require that change.

Several users have also criticized NFT marketplaces, particularly OpenSea, for not doing enough to restart the NFT season. Instead, the platform had pivoted into a crypto aggregation platform.

The marketplace faded into irrelevance in 2025. About a year ago, it announced plans to launch its SEA token. With no launch date set, some users have accused the platform of simply farming users.

Unsurprisingly, there are already signs of potential headwinds for the NFT sector this year. Last week, NFT Paris was cancelled, with the team noting that market collapse was a factor.

Sportswear giant Nike, which went all in on the NFT craze in 2021 by launching its own platform RTFKT, has also pulled back. The company sold its NFT subsidiary in December after shutting down for a year.

Before that, NFT marketplace X2Y2 had also announced the sunset of its NFT service, citing the 90% market decline. The platform has the second-highest all-time NFT trading volume behind OpenSea. It is also pivoting into DeFi yield aggregation.

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