Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event on the number of Fed rate hikes in 2026.
From the perspective of interest rate trajectories, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives: one view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a period of slowing growth by 2026, prompting the Fed to remain on hold or even restart rate cuts; another view suggests that if inflation re-emerges or long-term inflation expectations spiral out of control, the Fed may be forced to restart its hiking cycle. Thus, the high pricing around “three to four rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation persistence and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.
Bank of America has taken the lead in revising its interest rate path forecast to a more hawkish stance. BofA Global Research now forecasts that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2026, resulting in a total of 75 basis points of hikes for the year, pushing the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This outlook represents a significant upward revision from its previous expectation of no rate changes in 2026, primarily based on the continued resilience of the U.S. labor market, an uneven path of inflation decline, and the possibility of a more hawkish policy reaction function under the leadership of new Chair Kevin Warsh. In contrast, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to begin hiking in September, but forecasts a total of 50 basis points in hikes for the year, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the risk of higher U.S. interest rates in 2026.
Odaily Seer continuously monitors prediction markets to see changes before pricing.