Polymarket has launched a prediction market on the number of Fed rate hikes in 2026. BofA Global Research expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2026, for a total of 75 basis points this year, pushing the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%, primarily based on the resilience of the U.S. labor market, the progress of inflation decline, and policy responses under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Deutsche Bank anticipates the Fed will begin hiking rates in September, with a total increase of 50 basis points for the year.
Polymarket Launches 2026 Fed Rate Hike Prediction Market
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Summary
Polymarket has launched a 2026 Fed rate hike prediction market, providing traders with a new tool to track interest rate developments. BofA forecasts three 25-basis-point increases in September, October, and December 2026, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. Deutsche Bank projects a 50-basis-point increase for the year, beginning in September. Market sentiment reflects growing focus on Fed policy under Chair Kevin Warsh, with labor and inflation trends shaping market expectations.
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