Polymarket Hires Japan Head, Targets 2030 Regulatory Approval

Polymarket has quietly put a senior local hire in place as it prepares a long-term push into Japan, Bloomberg reports — a sign the prediction-market platform is getting serious about winning formal regulatory approval in one of Asia’s most tightly regulated gambling and financial markets. Key move: Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin, who lists himself as head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter on LinkedIn, to lead its Japan expansion, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The company is reportedly targeting regulatory authorization to operate in Japan by 2030. Why Japan matters — and why it’s tricky - Japan is currently on Polymarket’s list of restricted jurisdictions; users there are blocked from accessing the platform because of “regulatory requirements and compliance with international sanctions.” - The legal backdrop is strict: Japan’s Penal Code can punish habitual gambling with up to three years in prison, and running a gambling business carries penalties from three months to five years. - At the same time, Polymarket says it has “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and across Asia and is “always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways.” Local traction already exists: Polymarket’s Japanese X account has amassed more than 53,000 followers, and the platform currently lists roughly 169 active contracts tied to Japanese events — everything from Bank of Japan rate decisions to political outcomes. Competition and market context Polymarket’s Japan effort comes amid intense competition and shifting market dynamics in prediction markets: - Volumes: DeFiLlama data shows Polymarket’s notional volume fell to $9.967 billion in April from $11.275 billion in March, while rival Kalshi’s volume rose from $13.211 billion in March to $14.647 billion in April. - Valuations: Kalshi reached a reported $22 billion valuation after a $1 billion raise in March. Polymarket’s valuation was reported at $9 billion after a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange in October 2025. Regulatory headwinds worldwide Prediction markets are under scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions: - South Korea’s Korea Communications Standards Commission is reportedly probing whether Polymarket hosts illegal gambling content. - India has blocked access to Polymarket and is moving to block Kalshi, according to local reports citing the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. - In the U.S., Polymarket obtained CFTC approval to re-enter the market last year after being forced offshore for offering unlicensed futures-style contracts. But state regulators have pushed back: federal agencies recently sued Minnesota over a new state law that bans prediction markets. Meanwhile in Japan, lawmakers are tightening crypto oversight: the cabinet last month approved a bill to reclassify cryptocurrencies as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, bringing insider-trading prohibitions and annual disclosure requirements for issuers — a regulatory shift that could affect how tokenized markets and prediction platforms are treated. Bottom line Polymarket’s appointment of an on-the-ground representative signals a patient, compliance-first approach to entering Japan — a market with clear user interest but heavy legal and regulatory hurdles. How quickly the platform can convert that interest into an approved, operating business will depend on local law, ongoing legislative changes and how regulators globally decide to treat prediction markets.