ChainCatcher report: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates on Polymarket fell 11% in 24 hours to 28%, after previously peaking at 39%, with trading volume nearing $1.8 million. Previously, rising core PCE data has been unfavorable for a dovish Fed stance. Additionally, forecasts now suggest the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points each in September 2026 and March 2027, compared to earlier predictions of rate cuts in June and September of this year.
Polymarket's probability of the Fed cutting rates drops 11% in 24 hours to 28%
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Summary
Fed news shows the probability of Fed rate cuts on Polymarket dropped 11% in 24 hours to 28%, down from 39%. The event has attracted nearly $1.8 million in trading volume. Rising core PCE data has weakened expectations of a dovish Fed. The market now anticipates a 25-basis-point cut in September 2026 and March 2027, pushing back earlier forecasts of June and September 2026. Altcoins to watch may react to shifting rate expectations.
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