Polymarket faces mounting trader backlash over its proposed “No” resolution on a contested Bitcoin (BTC) market. Strategy Inc, formerly MicroStrategy, confirmed a 32 BTC sale during the window.
The market now prices “No” at 99.8 cents. Polymarket ruled that public confirmation arrived outside the resolution timeframe.
MicroStrategy’s Sale Triggers Polymarket Standoff
Strategy disclosed in a June 1 Form 8-K filing that it sold 32 BTC. The sale ran from May 26 to May 31 for roughly $2.5 million. Proceeds will fund preferred stock distributions at $77,135 per coin.
The amount equals about 0.0038% of Strategy’s 843,706 BTC treasury. However, the filing marked the company’s first reported sale since December 2022. It broke a long-running narrative that Michael Saylor never sells.
Analysts have flagged Strategy’s capital pressure tied to a roughly $15 billion preferred stock load. A recent convertible debt buyback also drained cash.
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Resolution Hinges on Disclosure Timing
Polymarket’s “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?” event drew $85 million in total volume. The May 31 slice alone holds $53.86 million in open positions.
On June 1, Polymarket said no MSTR filings, on-chain data, or credible reporting confirmed a sale in the window.
“Confirmation achieved outside of the market’s time frame does not qualify,” Polymarket indicated.
Polymarket markets settle through UMA oracle infrastructure. Repeated disputes escalate to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism, where token holders vote within 48 to 96 hours.
The 32 BTC sale is too small to move Bitcoin prices. However, more than $20 million in dispute-affected positions hinge on whether disclosure timing or event timing controls the outcome.
“This has made me lose a lot of faith in Polymarket. Its confirmed they sold before the outcome was resolved. An announcement within the timeframe isn’t even in the context,” one user stated.