According to PolyBeats, the market on Polymarket asking “Did Strategy sell BTC before May 31?” has become contentious. Earlier today, it was set to settle as “No,” but after Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC last week, the market rapidly reversed, with the probability of “Yes” spiking briefly to 85%. It has since cooled to 51%, with both sides holding firm, and trading volume in this sub-market has surpassed $20 million.
The market rule is: if the Strategy sells any of its Bitcoin before the specified time, the market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No." The primary sources of information for this market will be data from MSTR and on-chain data, alongside consensus opinions from credible third-party reports.
The "yes" side believes the outcome is obvious, while the "no" side generally argues that the sale announcement was published after May 31 and should not be considered.
Polymarket has added additional clarification for this market: We have noticed the controversy in this market. If a clarification statement is to be issued, it will be released on June 1 at 1:00 PM Eastern Time (1:00 AM Beijing Time). If no statement is issued by that time, it will indicate that the Polymarket team will not provide any clarification. The order book will be settled at 1:00 PM Eastern Time, regardless of whether a clarification statement has been released.
Polymarket Faces Dispute Over Strategy's BTC Sale Prediction Market
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Summary
A prediction market on Polymarket regarding whether Strategy will sell BTC before May 31 has sparked debate. Initially favoring "No," the market shifted to "Yes" after Strategy disclosed selling 32 BTC last week. The "Yes" probability peaked at 85% before declining to 51%. Polymarket may issue a statement at 1 AM Beijing time on June 1. Market-making strategies and market trends remain under close observation as traders respond to the shift.
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