On-chain data from Polymarket shows 90,000 active addresses and 2 million settled trades highlight four patterns for predictive trading. Mid-frequency traders win often but fail to profit due to inefficiencies. High-probability bets above 0.8 and long shots below 0.2 show negative returns. The sweet spot is between 0.2 and 0.4, where market divergence favors returns. Concentrated strategies beat diversified ones four times, proving niche expertise pays off.