The FIFA World Cup, expected to be one of the largest events in sports history, is already seeing huge trading volume in prediction markets as users seek to predict which team will win. Volumes for these contracts have reached nearly $2 billion in Kalshi and Polymarket.
Key Takeaways:
- Polymarket and Kalshi hit $2B in World Cup bets before June 11, next disrupting old sportsbooks.
- A SEON survey shows 19% of US adults favor prediction platforms, squeezing crypto betting apps.
- Minnesota and 2 states target Polymarket and Kalshi to classify them under local gambling laws.
FIFA World Cup Derivatives Start Moving Billions in Prediction Markets
Prediction market platforms are already seeing huge inflows of funds, just days before the FIFA World Cup kickoff slated for June 11 during the Mexico vs. South Africa match.
An initial overview of the mainbets in the two main prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, indicates that derivatives linked to the outcome of the team that will be the tournament champion register nearly $2 billion in volume at the time of writing.
Spain, the team that clinched victory in 2010, is considered the favorite on both platforms, with odds of winning this year’s cup reaching 16%. France trails with close to 16%, with Portugal and England following. At the other end, long-shot bets have been made in teams like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Cape Verde, and Panama, which would yield returns of thousands of times the amounts invested if any of these teams win the trophy.
While both prediction market platforms were founded ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, they had not yet reached the popularity they have now. Prediction markets now battle for user preference with traditional sportsbook betting platforms and with other crypto-enabled apps.
According to a survey by SEON, a fraud prevention and compliance company, prediction markets have risen as a betting channel, especially for young adults with knowledge of the crypto industry.
Of the 588 U.S adults surveyed, 19% stated that they would use prediction markets to make bets during the tournament. While prediction markets trail traditional sportsbooks (29%), their preference surpasses social casino, crypto betting platforms, and offshore options, reaching a relevant place.
This rise among betting platforms has put prediction markets in the sights of state regulators in the U.S. Polymarket and Kalshi are engaged in legal battles in Minnesota, New Mexico, and Nevada as state gambling regulators seek to classify them as gambling platforms at a state level.