Odaily Planet Daily report: Shortly before the CPI report was released, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen predicted that inflation "could return to around the Fed's 2% target by mid-year." At the time, he may have been referring to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Due to the government shutdown, the most recent data available is the core PCE inflation rate for November last year, which stood at 2.8%. The December core PCE price index is scheduled to be released on February 20, with current forecasts estimating core inflation at 2.8%. Data for January will not be available for some time. Historically, the average CPI increase has typically been about 0.5 percentage points higher than PCE. (Jin10)
PCE Data to Reveal Insights on Progress Toward the Fed’s Inflation Target
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Summary
CFT agencies are closely monitoring the upcoming PCE data, as it could impact risk-on assets. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen stated that inflation may reach the Fed’s 2% target by mid-year, citing the PCE index. The November 2025 core PCE was 2.8%, with the December data scheduled for release on February 20, 2026. The January report will take longer to arrive. On average, CPI typically exceeds PCE by 0.5 percentage points.
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