Odaily Planet Daily report: As prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket become increasingly popular and scaled, the use of insider information for trading is on the rise. An analysis of approximately 34,000 suspiciously flagged transactions revealed that between January and June 2026, the total value of flagged transactions reached around $200 million, with geopolitical and war-related bets being the primary drivers—Iran-related bets peaked in late February. A staggering 71% of flagged transactions were funded through U.S.-regulated crypto exchanges. Profits from flagged transactions were highly concentrated: the top 1% of profitable wallets captured over half of all profits, and 57% of these wallets were created within 24 hours prior to trading.
Over $200 million in suspected illegal trades flagged in the first half of 2026
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Summary
Over $200 million in suspected illegal trades were flagged in the first half of 2026, according to crypto analysis by Odaily. A total of 34,000 suspicious trades were identified, with geopolitical and war-related bets as the primary drivers. Iran-related wagers surged in late February. 71% of the trades originated from U.S.-regulated exchanges. The top 1% of wallets captured over half the profits, with 57% of them created within 24 hours. Fear and Greed Index data showed sharp volatility during the same period.
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