BlockBeats news: On January 20, traders on Derive.xyz, a decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contracts, and structured products protocol, believe there is a 30% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by the end of June. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, stated, "The options market shows a clear downward bias. As of June 26, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 is 30%, while the probability of it breaking above $120,000 during the same period is only 19%."
Recently, due to the opposition of ten European countries to the U.S. plan to take over Greenland, Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on imported goods from these ten European nations, reigniting concerns over tariffs. As a result, Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $91,000.
Dawson noted that geopolitical tensions could potentially lead to a deeper decline. "Escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe, particularly the disputes around Greenland, have increased the risk of a structural shift back to a high-volatility environment, a dynamic that is not yet fully reflected in current spot prices," he explained. The options skew, which measures the price difference between call and put options, remains in negative territory, indicating short-term downward concerns. Activity on centralized derivatives platforms such as Deribit also shows the same signal.
On the Derive and Deribit platforms, put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 have a high concentration of open contracts, indicating that the market expects the price to potentially drop to the mid-range of $75,000.