Key Insights
- NVIDIA stock price dropped in the first quarter of this year.
- The stock will next react to its upcoming earnings in May.
- The stock will likely drop further in the second quarter of this year.
NVIDIA stock price had a difficult first quarter as it remained inside a narrow range. It ended the quarter at $175, down from its all-time high of $212. This article provides a forecast of what to expect in the second quarter and whether it will rebound or continue falling.
NVIDIA Stock to React to its Q1 Earnings
A key driver for the NVIDIA stock in the next three months will be its first quarter earnings report, which will come out on May 20th.
These results will provide more information about its business and whether its growth is accelerating.
Data shows analysts expect its revenue to jump 78.7% in the first quarter to $79 billion. The most optimistic analyst expects the upcoming results to show that the revenue rose to $85 billion.
NVIDIA’s revenue likely continued growing in the first quarter as large hyperscalers continued investing heavily on data centers. Smaller neocloud companies like Nebius, CoreWeave, and IREN have also hinted that they continue to invest heavily on their data centers.
NVIDIA’s profits are expected to keep growing, with the average earnings per share (EPS) rising from $0.81 in the first quarter of 2025 to $1.78, a 120% surge. In contrast, the average S&P 500 Index earnings growth is 13%.
Most importantly, NVIDIA has a long track record of doing better than expected, meaning that its revenue and earnings per share will be better than its previous guidance and what analysts expect.
Still, the challenge for the stock is not whether the company will publish strong financial results, because it has become a habit over the long term. For example, the stock remained on edge despite releasing strong results in February.
Instead, the stock will react to the magnitude of the earnings beat on its business. A strong earnings beat and forward guidance will push it higher during the quarter.
SpaceX IPO to Have a Minor Impact on NVDA stock
The other key catalyst for NVDA’s stock price is the upcoming SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO), expected later this quarter. It will be the biggest IPO in the world.
NVIDIA stock will react to this IPO for two main reasons. First, while NVIDIA has not invested in SpaceX, it does hold a small stake in xAI, which comprises X and Grok.
SpaceX merged with xAI earlier this year, giving it a small stake in the combined company. That small stake may become a big one if the stock surges after the IPO.
Second, the IPO will raise billions of dollars for the company, which it will use to buy more NVIDIA GPUs in the coming months.
There are other potential catalysts for the NVIDIA stock price in the second quarter. For example, traders will react to Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to China, where a deal for NVIDIA to sell chips to China will be reached. NVIDIA believes its China business can generate over $50 billion in annual revenue.
NVDA Stock Price Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the NVIDIA stock has been under pressure this year. A closer look shows that there are signs that bears are prevailing as it has already moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average.
Additionally, the stock moved below the key support level at $170 earlier this week. It may move below this price again this month, confirming the drop below the neckline of the head-and-shoulders chart pattern.
The stock remains below the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that it continues to fall this quarter as investors target the important support level at $150.
On the other hand, a move above the key resistance level at $193, the right shoulder, will point to more gains, potentially to the record high of $212 and above.
The post NVIDIA Stock Forecast for the Second Quarter: Buy or Sell? appeared first on The Market Periodical.