Turn Attention into an Order Book: Noise Lets You “Trade Hype” On-Chain
Original author: Eric, Foresight News
On April 1, 2026, Beijing Time, the prediction market for热度, Noise, launched its Beta version with trading officially open. Users must pay $5 to trade on the Beta version DApp to prevent malicious activity.
In January, Noise announced the completion of a $7.1 million seed round led by Paradigm, with participation from Figment Capital, Anagram, GSR, and JPEG Trading. KaitoAI, a representative of the attention economy previously cut off from X’s API, also participated in the investment.
The term "stirring up hype" has always meant deliberately creating topics and generating attention through various means to increase exposure and discussion around something. But Noise quantifies hype into a number, allowing users to trade the fluctuations of that number. In Noise’s own words, prediction markets focus on “whether something will happen,” while Noise focuses on “how important something is right now.”
Popularity Index Trading Platform
The mechanism of Noise is quite simple to explain: using Noise’s algorithm, a热度 index is generated for a particular event or cultural symbol; users can predict whether the热度 will rise or fall in the future and place long or short positions accordingly.
There are only two things to explain: first, how to trade; second, how this index is calculated.
Perhaps because it is in the testing phase, trading on the Noise platform does not directly use fiat currency or cryptocurrency; instead, users must purchase "credits" on the platform and use those credits to trade.
Fiat purchases support bank channels as well as Cash App and Amazon Pay; for cryptocurrency payments, transfers must be made via MetaMask and Phantom, with USDC on Ethereum and Solana currently supported. The author did not find an option to redeem credits for fiat or stablecoins, likely because the Beta version is only testing the trading engine and does not yet include settlement functionality.
Taking the market for "crude oil," a recent focus of significant market attention, as an example, you can choose leverage from 1x to 5x for long and short trading. This market is currently one of the hottest in the Noise Beta version, but its 24-hour trading volume is only around $200,000, with an open interest of approximately $2 million, equivalent to less than $20 million in USD.
Although not displayed on the frontend, Noise also employs a limit order book model. Unlike prediction markets, Noise’s trading market resembles cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, where the index provided by the oracle serves as the "mark price," and the market automatically balances the market price with the mark price through funding rates.
As for the热度 index we are trading, Noise refers to it as the "Relevance Index," with data calculated based on two sources: content and signals.
On the content side, Noise tracks interactions, post volume, and unique authors on relevant topics across X, Reddit, YouTube, Instagram, Substack, and RSS news feeds. Signals come from trading volume and market count on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Smoothed values from all sources and metrics (to prevent short-term noise from influencing results) are weighted and aggregated into a composite value, which represents the index that users trade. However, Noise does not fully disclose the specific algorithm, likely to prevent individuals from exploiting the algorithm’s mechanics to artificially inflate the popularity of certain topics or dilute the热度 of key events through excessive irrelevant information.
Interestingly, the author found a YouTube video showcasing the testnet experience of Noise from a year ago; in April 2025, Noise’s index was still a “Mindshare” metric ranging between 0 and 100, and this description was still used in a Forbes article on prediction markets published this February.
Founder who just graduated from university
The core founding team of Noise consists of three members, all from the University of Southern California: 22-year-old Luca Cordova Stuart, 26-year-old David-Zhou, and 24-year-old Gabriel Perez Carafa.
Gabriel Perez Carafa had no prior work experience before Noise, Luca Cordova Stuart had an internship in business development at LayerZero Labs, and David Zhou has almost no publicly available information.
None of Noise’s three co-founders have any standout credentials, much like Kalshi in its early days. However, unlike Kalshi, although Forbes categorized Noise as a prediction market, these three young founders disagree. In a blog post announcing their beta launch, they wrote, “You may have seen people comparing Noise to prediction markets—we understand why this comparison is made, but we don’t agree with it. Speculation is just one of many factors; our goal is to build a platform that helps people understand and share deeper stories about modern culture, lifestyle, politics, and technological change.”
From numerous articles published in the past, Noise has consistently aimed to convey this: eliminate the noise to gain true insight. Prediction markets provide probabilities of events occurring, backed by real money; what Noise seeks to discuss is whether it’s even worthwhile to debate whether the event will happen.
What other use cases are there besides speculation?
Speculation is inevitable in trading markets, and that’s not debatable; the key is identifying what practical use cases exist beyond the noise.
Previously, Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, shared at a conference that recently, millions-of-dollars-sized orders have appeared on Kalshi’s inflation prediction markets, originating from large corporations hedging against potential wage increases driven by inflationary rebounds. Noise presents a similar scenario: companies can use a portion of their marketing budget to short the topics they plan to market, thereby hedging against the failure of their marketing strategies.
In addition, the concept of "popularity" has unique applications in trading cryptocurrencies, stocks, and other assets. On Noise’s market for the PUMP topic, popularity peaked precisely at the high point following the first pullback of the PUMP. For investors who adhere to the principle of "buy when no one is paying attention, sell when everyone is talking," Noise’s related markets may serve as a useful reference and hedging channel.
Noise plans to launch its mainnet on Base over the coming months, at which point the platform will be open to everyone and support real-funds trading. From the author’s perspective, Noise’s concept is indeed innovative and has real-world use cases; however, similar to prediction markets from over a decade ago, the current trading "hype" and "trend" may still be slightly ahead of its time. Nevertheless, in today’s market dominated by stablecoins and payment apps, Noise represents a viable opportunity for earning airdrops.
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