Article by Mahe, Foresight News
On May 18, Bubblemaps founder Nicolas Vaiman and investigative lead Deebs (a former U.S. military officer, whose real name is withheld for security reasons) disclosed to the public that they had identified nine highly interconnected anonymous accounts on Polymarket, which collectively netted over $2.4 million from prediction markets related to U.S. military operations, with a win rate of 98%.
Bubblemaps provided a detailed analysis on Twitter of these accounts, which almost exclusively bet on military events related to a potential 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, placing bets with eerie precision—often days before key actions occur—and favoring low-odds, long-term options.
This isn’t just “good luck.” Bubblemaps visualized the trading activity on Polymarket’s market regarding “U.S. first strike on Iran before February 28” and discovered a massive pink cluster that had gone unnoticed on X.
Further investigation linked the initial four accounts to five additional accounts, fully connected through time windows, transaction sizes, and fund flow patterns. The fund flows of all nine accounts showed high consistency: funds were rapidly transferred through centralized exchanges into a shared wallet network, allegedly using professional services to obscure their trail.
Each of the four core accounts earned $400,000
In the early hours of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint strike codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Roar of the Lion." Over a 12-hour period, U.S. and Israeli forces conducted nearly 900 strikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centers, and hideouts of senior leadership. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple family members, along with senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, were killed in the initial strikes.
On the very day of the crackdown on February 28, Bubblemaps publicly flagged six "fresh" accounts. These accounts, mostly created and funded within the 24 hours prior to the crackdown, placed heavy bets on the prediction that "the U.S. would strike Iran before February 28," collectively netting approximately $1 million (some reports indicate $1.2 million). At the time, market odds were extremely low, yet these accounts held substantial positions. Bubblemaps labeled this as "suspected insider trading."
Five months later, they discovered a larger cluster of nine accounts with a higher win rate.
Four core accounts were created in the days leading up to February 28, each generating approximately $400,000 in profits; five subsequent accounts were linked through overlapping fund flows and trading patterns. Across the nine accounts, more than 80 bets were placed, almost entirely wagering on U.S. military actions: the initial strike on February 28, the exact timing of Khamenei’s removal, and the announcement of a ceasefire agreement. They even spread bets across multiple dates to maximize returns, while occasionally placing a few small losing bets (such as on February 20), likely to obscure their activities.
Bubblemaps lists nine Polymarket wallet addresses (0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84, etc.) and highlights that these accounts have consistently ranked at the top of the profit and loss leaderboard. The funds ultimately flow into a shared wallet network, indicating signs of professional money laundering or service activity.
Vaiman stated bluntly: “Luck cannot explain these numbers.” Deebs added that there are numerous potential insider sources—government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts, and even military family members.
Earlier this year, U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was accused of using classified intelligence to place bets on Venezuela-related events on Polymarket, investing $34,000 to profit $400,000 before quickly withdrawing funds and attempting to delete his account. Polymarket actively cooperated with law enforcement, ultimately leading to prosecution. The Van Dyke case has become a landmark example of insider trading in prediction markets.
This time, the nine-account cluster earned six times more, achieved a higher win rate, and was entirely focused on the U.S.-Iran military incident.
Bubblemaps exclusively shared its investigation with 60 Minutes, which generated significant attention after airing on the evening of May 17. The CBS report noted that Polymarket has implemented an AI monitoring and blockchain forensic system to report suspicious activity to law enforcement, emphasizing that "insider trading is not tolerated on the platform."
As of publication, Bubblemaps has not directly linked the nine accounts to any specific entity or government department, only stating that "the association and near-perfect win rate raise serious concerns."
Anti-insider trading and anti-copy trading
Insider trading has made many market participants feel it is unfair, and prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are taking additional measures to combat insider trading.
At the end of March this year, Polymarket updated its market integrity rules for its DeFi platform and its U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clearly define three core prohibited insider trading activities:
- Trading using stolen confidential information—participants shall not engage in any contract transactions if they possess confidential information regarding the outcome or potential outcomes of an event, and using such information would violate a pre-existing duty of trust or confidentiality owed to others or entities.
- Prohibit trading based on illegal insider information—participants must not trade using confidential information provided to them by another party, if that information was disclosed by someone who owed a prior duty of trust or confidentiality to another, and the participant knew or had reason to know that the discloser themselves would be prohibited from trading on that information.
- Individuals who can influence the outcome must not trade—participants who possess the authority or influence to affect the outcome of the underlying event are prohibited from trading any contracts.
However, rules always have loopholes; since insider trading cannot be completely eliminated, certain so-called “insider copy-trading projects” that exploit these gaps have sparked significant controversy. These apps aggregate trading accounts with unusually high win rates or flag suspiciously timed and anomalously sized trades, enabling users to copy these trades with a single click.
Kreo’s selling point is helping users “find insider traders before anyone else,” while Polycool directly features “The Polymarket Insider Trading Guide” on its website, stating, “This is not the stock market—using non-public information to place bets won’t land you in jail; the rules of decentralized prediction markets are entirely different.”
The question arises: Is following trades from insider trading addresses considered a violation?
The official team has not responded yet.
However, so-called "insider copy-trading platforms" such as PolyGUN and Polycule suffered cyberattacks this year, resulting in losses ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.