ChainCatcher report: According to market sources, following the release of Friday’s significantly stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, market expectations for Fed rate hikes this year have surged sharply. Spot gold plunged significantly, erasing nearly all its gains for the year and marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. Silver followed a similar trend to gold but exhibited slightly higher volatility, closing the week down 9.85%. The U.S. dollar index rose sharply, climbing above the 100 level, supported by the robust jobs data. After the non-farm report, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.35%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.65%—its largest single-day decline since October 2025—and the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.18%, its steepest one-day drop since April 2025. Goldman Sachs noted that greed sentiment in the market has now clearly outweighed fear. Deutsche Bank pointed out that markets remain highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Key market events to watch next week (all times Beijing time): Monday 23:00 — U.S. May NY Fed One-Year Inflation Expectation Tuesday 14:00 — Germany’s April seasonally adjusted monthly industrial production and trade balance Tuesday 18:00 — U.S. May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Tuesday 20:15 — U.S. ADP Employment Change for the week ending May 23 Wednesday 20:30 — U.S. May CPI (unadjusted), and monthly seasonally adjusted CPI/Core CPI Wednesday 21:45 — Bank of Canada interest rate decision Thursday 20:15 — European Central Bank interest rate decision Thursday 20:30 — U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6; May PPI annual and monthly changes Friday 14:00 — Final German May CPI monthly change Friday 14:45 — Final French May CPI monthly change Friday 22:00 — U.S. preliminary June one-year inflation expectation and University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index Next week brings a series of major events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, the offering may launch as early as Friday; if it proceeds, it is expected to significantly impact overall market sentiment, though the direction remains uncertain. Beyond SpaceX, Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC’s May sales data could also significantly influence market volatility. Next week marks a relatively quiet phase in the U.S. earnings season, with limited overall reporting volume—but heavyweight tech firms Oracle and Adobe will sequentially report, drawing intense market attention.
Next Week’s Macro Outlook: US CPI, Central Bank Decisions, and the SpaceX IPO in Focus
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Summary
CFT measures are drawing attention as the market looks ahead to a pivotal week, with focus on the US May CPI data, central bank rate decisions, and the potential SpaceX IPO. The week will also feature key economic reports, including ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and PPI. Liquidity in crypto markets remains closely monitored amid shifting macro conditions and geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran. Apple’s WWDC, Oracle and Adobe earnings, and TSMC sales figures are also expected to influence investor sentiment.
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