Next Week’s Macro Outlook: U.S.-Iran Deal May See "Interim Progress," Clarity on Rate Path Expected

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CFT developments could influence liquidity in global markets next week as U.S.-Iran talks seek interim progress. Central bank officials from the U.S. and Japan are scheduled to speak on May 26, 2026, potentially providing clarity on rate trajectories. A shift in geopolitical risk could boost crypto markets and U.S. equities. Key data releases and speeches may directly impact liquidity and crypto markets.

BlockBeats report: On May 24, Iran, the United States, Pakistan, and multiple international media outlets signaled progress in negotiations surrounding the nearly three-month-long conflict, indicating that all parties are moving toward phased outcomes. Next week, if this development continues to be confirmed and implemented, capital markets may see a return of risk appetite, potentially leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.


On the macroeconomic front, policymakers from the U.S. and Japanese central banks will deliver a series of speeches next week, which could further clarify interest rate expectations for the next phase:


Tuesday, 22:00, U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May;

Wednesday, 08:00, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, speaks at a monetary policy meeting hosted by the Bank of Japan;

Wednesday, 20:15, ADP Employment Change for the week ending May 9 in the United States;

Thursday, 20:30: Canada's Q1 current account, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, U.S. annual core PCE price index for April, U.S. monthly personal spending for April, U.S. revised annualized Q1 real GDP growth rate, U.S. monthly core PCE price index for April, U.S. monthly durable goods orders for April;

At 20:55 on Thursday, William, a permanent FOMC voter and President of the New York Fed, delivered a keynote speech at a conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland.

Thursday, 22:15, 2028 FOMC voter and President of the St. Louis Fed, Musalem, will speak;

Friday, 07:30, Japan April unemployment rate;

At 18:50 on Friday, Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voter and President of the Kansas City Fed, will speak;

On Friday at 21:10, Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech.


In addition, on Monday, May 25, in observance of Memorial Day, U.S. stock markets were closed. Trading for CME Group’s precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contracts was suspended at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26; trading for U.S. stock and Treasury futures contracts was suspended at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Trading for ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26.

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