According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $50k to buy "ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini will drop out of the top spot on the US App Store free chart by March 8," at an average entry price of 50¢, with a probability of 45%.
According to the settlement rules, if any of ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini falls out of the #1 position on the U.S. iOS App Store's Top Free Apps chart by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on March 8, the market will settle as "Yes." If any one of these four apps remains at #1, the market will settle as "No."
Over the past two weeks, the top spot on the US App Store free chart has been dominated by these AI apps. Previously, ChatGPT held the number-one position for an extended period, but between late February and early March, following the controversy over OpenAI’s contract with the military and a subsequent wave of user uninstalls, Claude’s downloads surged and successfully replaced ChatGPT as the number-one free app in the US. The top spot continues to alternate among these leading AI apps.
Account:
0xd44e1d167666040a39a8eb58b6676ab027463212
Total open position: $50k
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New account invests $50k in a prediction market on top AI apps leaving the App Store free chart.
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Summary
A new investor has placed a $50k bet on Polymarket predicting that ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, or Google Gemini will fall from the top of the US App Store free chart by March 8. The trade was opened at 50¢, reflecting a 45% chance of winning. Settlement depends on any of the four apps dropping from No. 1 by 11:59 PM ET. In recent weeks, these apps have exchanged top positions, with ChatGPT losing ground to Claude after OpenAI’s military contract sparked user concerns. Bitcoin price movements and top altcoins such as Solana and Cardano have seen increased activity amid the volatility surrounding these AI apps.
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