BlockBeats News: On January 23, according to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts expect 2026 to potentially be a bear market year for Bitcoin, with several forecasts suggesting that Bitcoin's price could fall back to around $58,000. Recently, analyst Titan of Crypto posted that "Bitcoin has just issued a bear market signal," citing a bearish crossover in the MACD on the two-month timeframe as the basis for this claim. He noted that, historically, similar technical patterns often lead to a 50%-64% pullback.
The latest round of selling has caused BTC to pull back about 9% from its 2026 high of $97,930. As a result, Bitcoin has broken through multiple key support levels, including the 75th percentile cost basis currently at $92,940. On Thursday, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin "has now fallen below the cost basis of 75% of its supply, indicating rising distribution (selling) pressure," and added, "The risk has clearly shifted upward, and downside risks will remain dominant until this level is reclaimed."
Trader Merlijn The Trader analyzed that the price of Bitcoin has "returned to the rising trendline support level," which is currently in the range of $89,000–$90,000. He added that if this level is broken, the price is likely to retest the lower end of the range, around $84,000. The Bitcoin cost distribution heatmap shows that over the past six months, investors have accumulated approximately 941,651 BTC near this price level, indicating that this price range forms a significant key support level.
The next important support level is around $80,000, with historical data showing that approximately 127,000 BTC was previously bought within this price range. Several analysts believe that a weaker derivatives market, selling by long-term holders, and an increased transfer of Bitcoin to exchanges could drive the price of Bitcoin into a more prolonged downward trend this year.