MSTR Stock Price at Risk as Bitcoin Falls Below $93k

Key Insights

• MSTR stock price has stabilized in the past few weeks as investors bought the dip.
• Bitcoin price lost the important support level at $95,000 and moved to below $93,000.
• Technical analysis suggests that Strategy shares have more downside to go.

The MSTR stock price has stabilized in the past few weeks as the recent crash faded. Strategy ended last week at $173.70, up by 16% above the lowest level this year. It remains 60% below its 2025 high and could be at risk of a deeper dive after Bitcoin dropped below key support at $95,000.

Strategy has grown to become the biggest Bitcoin holder in the world. It now holds 687,410 coins currently worth over $63.9 billion, a trend that will continue over time.

Strategy’s business is directly affected by Bitcoin’s performance, which explains why it has plunged in the past few months.

The MSTR stock price may continue falling in the coming days now that Bitcoin has lost the important support at $95,000 and moved to a low of $91,800. It has retreated in the past five consecutive days and is hovering at its lowest level since January 13.

Bitcoin has remained below the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). That is a sign that bears remain in control for now, a move that may affect Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies.

Bitcoin’s price has retreated amid ongoing concerns about US regulations following the stall of the closely watched Market Structure Bill, commonly known as CLARITY, in the US Senate.

The bill stalled after Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, withdrew its support, citing the stablecoin rewards issue. Coinbase believes that banks and credit unions have largely hijacked the bill, fearing that it will lead to capital flight from their companies.

On the positive side, there are signs that the bill will ultimately pass as negotiations are still going on among different parties. According to Brian Armstrong, the White House has called for negotiations with community banks to resolve the outstanding issues.

Bitcoin’s price is also falling amid rising geopolitical tensions after Trump announced tariffs on key countries like the UK, Germany, and Denmark due to his desire to buy Greenland. The tariff warning also led to a sharp decline in European stock indices, such as the German DAX and French CAC 40. US stock Indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also in the red.

Additionally, the decline is because of last Friday’s spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. These funds recorded a $394 million outflow, a sign that American investors are adopting a risk-off stance.

Meanwhile, the daily timeframe chart suggests that the MSTR stock price has more downside to go in the near term.

The stock has remained below the Supertrend indicator, indicating the recent downtrend remains in place despite the ongoing consolidation.

The stock has also remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It also remains below the strong, pivot, reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $187.

Therefore, technicals suggest the stock will likely break down, with investors targeting the ultimate support level at $125. This view will be confirmed if it drops below the key support level at $150.

Strategy also has some highly bearish fundamentals, with the most important one being the ongoing dilution of existing investors.

The company is now executing all its Bitcoin purchases through common share sales, a move that has increased the number of outstanding shares substantially in the past few months. This dilution has more room to go as it has access to shares worth over $10 billion.

The other main challenge is that the company has seen its premium plunge. Data shows that its mNAV multiple based on the market capitalization has dropped to 0.78, while the one based on the enterprise value has dropped to 0.98.

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