Key Insights
- Strategy retained a 1.0x mNAV threshold for Bitcoin-per-share accretive MSTR issuance.
- MSTR delivered a 42% annualised return since Strategy adopted its Bitcoin strategy.
- Analysts said Strategy’s capital-raising capacity remained above its recurring obligations.
After briefly moving above $100 last week, MSTR stock returned toward the $96 region.
Strategy also revised the framework used to calculate its modified net asset value, or mNAV. The methodological update lifted the reported multiple from about 1.04x to 1.07x, according to crypto investor Mark Harvey.
The revision does not represent an increase in Strategy’s underlying Bitcoin holdings. Instead, it changes how the company accounts for securities senior to MSTR when estimating the common stock’s value relative to its Bitcoin reserve.
Strategy Update mNAV Framework, MSTR Stock Valuation Jumps 1.07x
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin holding firm Strategy (MSTR), has updated its modified net asset value (mNAV) framework. As a result, the mNAV has surged from 1.04x to 1.07x as per the revised methodology.
According to the update, the net Bitcoin-per-share accretion threshold will remain fixed at 1.00x under the new framework, reported crypto investor Mark Harvey.
The company said that it issues shares through its at-the-market (ATM) equity program at an mNAV above 1.00x to acquire additional Bitcoin or increase its U.S. dollar reserves. Such a transaction would benefit MSTR stockholders.
Commenting on this, Strategy CEO Phong Le said that the company’s upgrade mNAV framework brings several changes. These changes are important in improving how investors look at equity issuance.
Le said that the revised framework accounts for all securities senior to MSTR. It distinguishes between in-the-money (ITM) and out-of-the-money (OTM) convertible securities. Besides, it also establishes a 1.0x mNAV threshold for accretive issuance of MSTR shares.
He added that the updated framework incorporates feedback from institutional and retail investors, analysts, and other Bitcoin treasury companies.
MSTR Stock and Bitcoin Outperformance
With the MSTR stock price crashing 75% over the past year, investors have turned jittery about its future. Over the same period, Bitcoin price is also down more than 50% from its all-time high of $125,000. It shows that the MSTR stock has underperformed BTC over the last year.
However, over the longer timeframe, Strategy has shared details on how the MSTR stock has outperformed BTC, and even the Magnificent 7 companies.
In their latest post on the X platform, Strategy noted that the MSTR stock has delivered a 42% annualized rate of return (ARR) since adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Since then, it has outperformed several major benchmarks.
According to the company, MSTR has exceeded Bitcoin’s 32% ARR, the Magnificent Seven’s 23%, and the S&P 500’s 14% over the same period. On Thursday, July 30th, the company will be doing its Q2 earnings call to provide further clarity on its future plans.
Is MSTR Stock Dilution A Risk?
Over the past few weeks, Strategy has diluted its MSTR stock holdings and used the proceeds to build the company’s USD reserves. On the other hand, it has not made any fresh Bitcoin purchases over the past few weeks. This has raised concerns among market players, as the company uses the USD reserves to meet its obligations.
Despite its current restructuring, market experts continue to remain bullish on MSTR. Crypto analyst Adam Livingston said Strategy has the potential to become the world’s most valuable company. He said that the company’s ability to raise capital far exceeds its financial obligations.
According to Livingston, Strategy currently owes approximately $4.8 million per day in dividend payments and interest on debt. On the contrary, it has raised $121.7 million per trading day so far in 2026.
The analyst said the company’s capital-raising pace is more than 25x its daily obligations. This doesn’t include the value of its existing Bitcoin holdings and U.S. dollar reserves. Livingston added that Strategy currently holds approximately $53.7 billion worth of Bitcoin.
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