BlockBeats news, on April 29, according to Bloomberg data, over 100,000 accounts on the Polymarket platform have incurred losses of at least $1,000 each—a figure nearly double the number of accounts that achieved equivalent profits. Meanwhile, a group of approximately 823 highly active accounts (with extremely high daily trading volumes, classified as BOTs) collectively earned around $131 million. Excluding this group of high-activity BOTs, all other traders collectively lost $131 million.
The report states that the prediction market, with an annual trading volume exceeding $50 billion and continuing to grow, is currently dominated by a small number of automated programs. For example, on Polymarket, suspected BOT wallets—accounting for only about 5% of total wallets—generate 75% of the platform’s trading volume. These bots engage in high-frequency, dispersed trading across multiple markets, entering earlier and securing better prices, thereby achieving higher returns. In contrast, ordinary traders, even when correctly predicting market trends, often execute trades too late and at unfavorable prices, resulting in losses.
Research into recent market trends found that 68.8% of traders analyzing public opinion and geopolitical events on platforms like Polymarket have been in a loss since 2022. Data also shows that the group with the largest losses tends to trade more frequently near extreme price levels (odds below 10% or above 90%), while the top profit earners have the lowest trading activity in this range.