BlockBeats news, on May 19, Francisco Blanch, Head of Commodities and Derivatives Research at Bank of America, stated that an average Brent crude oil price of $90 per barrel for the remainder of the year is already the "best-case scenario." He noted that the global crude oil supply currently faces a daily deficit of 14 to 15 million barrels, accounting for approximately 14% to 15% of demand. If the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, oil prices could rise to $120–$130 by late June to early July; should the conflict escalate further and damage oil infrastructure, prices could surge even more sharply.
As the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, multiple Wall Street institutions have raised their oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs previously raised its year-end Brent crude oil target price to around $90, while JPMorgan warned that a sustained maritime bottleneck lasting four weeks could lead to a "catastrophic" global oil shortage. Royal Bank of Canada analyst Helima Croft also expressed skepticism about a return to normal shipping by June.
Brent crude oil has gained 80% year-to-date and is currently trading at $109.26 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation; a blockade would have a particularly pronounced impact on the Asia-Pacific region and continue to drive up costs for consumers and industries worldwide. According to Brown University data, since the outbreak of the Iran war, U.S. consumers have incurred over $40 billion in additional fuel costs. (Jinshi)