ChainThink reports that on March 18, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson released a report presenting a view contrary to current market panic, arguing that the recent sharp correction has already run its course in both time and space, and that the market is nearing a bottom rather than entering a new decline.
Data shows that 50% of stocks in the Russell 3000 Index are down more than 20% from their 52-week highs, and over 40% of stocks in the S&P 500 Index are in the same situation, indicating that half of all stocks are already in bear market territory—suggesting that the overall market decline underestimates the widespread nature of internal losses.
Wilson views this selling pressure as a "correction within a bull market," which began last autumn with tighter liquidity—long before the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions. Current market capitulation-style selling often signals an end rather than a beginning.
Unlike previous recessions, which were accompanied by declining profits, S&P 500 earnings are currently growing at a 13% rate and accelerating further. Wilson’s view rests on two key assumptions: that the Iran conflict remains contained and oil prices stay below $100 per barrel. If oil prices break above and sustain levels above $100, the market could shift from a correction to a more severe crisis.