BlockBeats news: On June 10, Morgan Stanley responded to the SemiAnalysis report that triggered yesterday’s significant pullback in U.S. equities. The firm agreed with SemiAnalysis’s view that CPO volume growth in the short term has fallen short of expectations, but still maintains a bullish outlook for explosive CPO growth after 2028. It also explicitly refuted claims that 800V mass production has been delayed until 2028, citing supply chain research indicating that 800V racks will proceed as planned in the second half of 2026. Yesterday, the independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that two key technological pathways for AI data centers have experienced significant delays—a report cited as one of the primary reasons for yesterday’s sharp correction in U.S. AI-related stocks.
Regarding the CPO direction, Morgan Stanley and SemiAnalysis hold largely aligned views—estimating global optical engine shipments in 2027 at only 6 to 7 million units, significantly below the market’s general expectation of 20 to 30 million units. The primary constraints stem from manufacturing bottlenecks, including TSMC’s SoIC yield of only 50%-60% and downstream assembly yields as low as 20%-50%. Short-term sentiment will remain under pressure. However, Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on key CPO targets such as TSMC, viewing the period from 2026 to 2028 as a transitional phase during which pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnects will coexist, with CPO’s true explosive growth expected to begin in 2028.
Regarding the 800V DC power cabinet issue, Morgan Stanley’s position sharply contrasts with SemiAnalysis. Morgan Stanley’s supply chain research indicates that the mass production timeline for 800V has not been disrupted; NVIDIA has stated at the Taipei GTC conference that 800V cabinets will be ready for mass production in Q3 2026, and Delta Electronics is expected to become the first manufacturer to achieve mass production of standalone 800V cabinets, with initial deliveries to leading North American hyperscalers anticipated in Q4 2026. The core divergence between the two reports centers on the trajectory of the ±400V DC solution—SemiAnalysis believes ±400V will coexist long-term with 800V, whereas Morgan Stanley’s research shows that major hyperscalers have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This divergence will directly impact the competitive landscape of the power supply supply chain and supplier positioning. The ultimate validation of both views will depend on Delta’s first shipments in Q4 2026 and the eventual placement of ±400V sidecar orders by year-end.