Morgan Stanley wants investors to believe SpaceX will be worth more than the current GDP of the United Kingdom by 2040. The investment bank’s analysts project SpaceX’s revenue hitting $3.4 trillion with adjusted EBITDA surpassing $2.7 trillion, numbers that would make the company one of the most profitable enterprises in human history.
Here’s the thing: SpaceX pulled in $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025. Getting to $3.4 trillion means roughly 180x growth in 15 years.
The IPO that could break records
The projections were shared with investors on June 5, 2026, as part of SpaceX’s IPO roadshow. Morgan Stanley is serving as a co-lead underwriter for the offering, which is targeting a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion.
The company plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The roadshow is aimed at raising roughly $75 billion from public markets.
One notable detail: Chinese and Hong Kong investors have been barred from participating in the IPO.
Where $3.4 trillion supposedly comes from
Morgan Stanley’s bull case rests on three pillars: Starlink’s satellite internet constellation, the Starship heavy-lift rocket program, and AI-related ventures.
The AI component is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this forecast. Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX’s AI business alone could generate $190 billion in revenue by 2030. That’s just four years from now, and it would represent a tenfold increase from the company’s total 2025 revenue figure.
Starlink already operates the most extensive satellite internet constellation in existence. Then there’s Starship, SpaceX’s fully reusable heavy-lift rocket system. SpaceX has been iterating on reusable rocket technology since the company’s founding in 2002.
What this means for investors
Morgan Stanley is underwriting the IPO. It has a financial incentive to make SpaceX look like the most compelling investment opportunity since early Amazon.
Going from $18.7 billion to $3.4 trillion in 15 years implies a compound annual growth rate of roughly 42%. For comparison, Amazon’s revenue grew at about 28% annually during its fastest 15-year stretch.
The adjusted EBITDA projection of over $2.7 trillion implies margins around 79%. Software companies can achieve those margins. Companies that build and launch rockets typically cannot.
The AI revenue projection of $190 billion by 2030 is perhaps the most testable near-term claim. If SpaceX is generating anything close to that from AI-related services within four years, it would validate the broader thesis.