BlockBeats report: On March 16, the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate, as U.S. forces launched military operations against Iranian energy facilities and planned to implement escort convoys for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by stating that the conflict could persist and warned that if energy targets are struck, it will carry out equivalent countermeasures against U.S.-related facilities in the region. As shipping risks rise, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly declined, rapidly intensifying market concerns over the stability of global energy supplies and supply chains.
The spillover effects of the conflict have spread from the energy market to the industrial metals sector. One of the world’s largest single aluminum smelters has been forced to cut production by approximately 20% due to disrupted raw material supplies, putting pressure on the Gulf region’s aluminum supply chain. The International Energy Agency has announced plans to release strategic oil reserves into Asian markets to alleviate short-term supply constraints. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, the cascading impact on energy and industrial raw material prices could further elevate global inflation expectations.
On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP for last year was revised down to 0.7%, indicating a clear slowdown in economic momentum. However, core PCE inflation remained at 3.1% year-over-year in January, and the labor market continued to show resilience, with job openings rising back to 6.95 million. The combination of economic slowdown and persistent inflation has heightened market discussions around the risk of a "stagflationary shock." Amid overlapping geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainty, global market sentiment toward risk appetite remains significantly divergent.
In the crypto market, BTC has reclaimed the key resistance level at 71,300, indicating that some risk capital is beginning to flow back; however, liquidity remains concentrated between 72,700 and 74,000. If the price sustains above 71,300, the short-term market will enter a new liquidity competition zone. Below, attention should be paid to the support liquidity bands near 69,000 and 70,200. Amid ongoing high macro geopolitical uncertainty, the crypto market’s short-term structure remains primarily driven by investor risk appetite and the distribution of derivatives liquidity.