Middle East tensions drive a 43-point 24-hour surge in the probability of $100/bbl oil on Polymarket.

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On-chain data shows the probability of crude oil reaching $100 per barrel by March 31 has increased by 43 percentage points in 24 hours to 63% on Polymarket. The probability for $105/bbl dropped 19 points to 42%, while the $110/bbl level rose 10 points to 27%. On-chain analysis indicates the $120/bbl threshold remains unchanged at 16%.

Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of crude oil surpassing $100 by March 31 on Polymarket is currently at 63%, up 43 percentage points in the last 24 hours. Additionally, data shows:

On Polymarket, the probability of crude oil breaking above $105 per barrel by March 31 is currently at 42%, down 19 points;

On Polymarket, the probability of crude oil breaking above $110 per barrel by March 31 is currently at 27%, up 10 points;

The probability of crude oil breaking above $120 per barrel on March 31 on Polymarket is currently listed at 16%.

Odaily Seer's prediction market channel continuously monitors market trends, spotting changes before pricing occurs.

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