Foreign media commented that the crypto market showed signs of a rebound in early May, with Bitcoin briefly reclaiming $82,000, before falling back into the $62,000–$63,000 range. The article noted that this rally failed to sustain momentum, as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures continued to weigh on the market.
After the peak, funds began to flow out.
The article notes that more pronounced capital outflows emerged in the market starting in October 2025, following Bitcoin’s rise to a historic high of $126,080, after which risk appetite weakened. It attributes this shift to rising macroeconomic uncertainty and intensifying global geopolitical tensions.
According to its analysis, the market did not weaken simply due to a price correction, but rather faced external environmental changes after reaching elevated levels. Following pressure on risk assets, cryptocurrency assets also gave up their gains.
Oil prices and inflation have become new sources of pressure.
The article states that after the United States launched strikes against Iran in February 2026, markets came under renewed pressure. The Strait of Hormuz was temporarily affected, leading to tightened global energy supplies, rising oil prices, and further upward pressure on inflation data.
The context cited in the article is that U.S. inflation rose to 4.2% in May 2026. Under these conditions, the Federal Reserve chose to hold interest rates steady. The article argues that inflation above the 2% target and the difficulty of lowering rates have weakened market support for risk assets, causing further pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
Whether it can be fixed by 2026 depends on the situation in the Middle East.
Regarding future developments, the article suggests that whether a more complete recovery occurs within 2026 still hinges on whether the Middle East situation eases. Although the United States and Iran briefly reached a peace agreement last week, the progress remains fragile. The report notes that after the conflict between Israel and Lebanon escalated again, Iran withdrew from negotiations, casting new uncertainty over the prospects for a ceasefire.
If the conflict between the U.S. and Iran persists, the Strait of Hormuz may again face the risk of closure. Should oil prices continue to rise, global economies will face heightened import-driven inflationary pressures, and sentiment toward risk assets may remain under pressure, making it difficult for the crypto market to accelerate its recovery.