Author: Claude, DeepChain TechFlow
Shenchao Summary: Those betting on AI storage face a critical test on June 24. Micron will release its quarterly earnings after the market close on that day. Its stock price has surged from $103 a year ago to $1,134—a roughly 11-fold increase—with a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion. The market is betting on further gains, with Wall Street consensus expecting a year-over-year earnings per share jump of approximately 932% and revenue growth of about 270%. The greater the rally, the higher the expectations the earnings report must meet. This report is the moment to validate the bet—and the toughest test yet for this year’s AI storage rally.
If you hold Micron or are following the AI, chip, and storage sectors, this earnings report after hours on June 24 is worth waiting for.
Micron's stock price has risen from $103 to $1,134 over the past year, approximately 11 times, with a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion, up about 297% this year. At this level, anyone buying further is likely thinking, "How much longer can this run?" The earnings report will be the moment that tests this bet.
Currently, the market consensus remains bullish.
According to CryptoBriefing, Wall Street expects Micron to report earnings per share of approximately $19.72 for this fiscal quarter, compared to just $1.91 in the same period last year—a year-over-year increase of about 932%. Revenue is projected at around $34.5 billion, up approximately 270% year-over-year. This growth is driven by high-bandwidth memory (HBM), high-speed memory chips specifically designed for AI accelerators. Micron’s entire HBM production capacity for 2026 has already been sold out, with orders booked through the end of the year.
Analysts revised their forecasts all year, yet expectations continue to rise.
This rally didn’t come out of nowhere. Over the past three months, Wall Street has been rapidly raising its earnings forecasts for Micron.
According to Alphastreet data, the consensus EPS for Micron for this fiscal quarter was $11.73 ninety days ago, rose to $19.13 thirty days ago, and is now at $19.72—a cumulative increase of 68%. Three months ago, Wall Street’s assessment of this company was nearly half of what it is today.
The profit forecasts from 31 analysts range from $7.53 to $24.08, while revenue forecasts span from $19.7 billion to $40.1 billion, showing a wide disparity. The steepness of this inflection point is unclear even to the analysts themselves, who can only adjust their estimates upward as actual data emerges.
For retail investors, this is a mixed signal.
Expectations have been repeatedly raised, indicating that fundamentals are indeed exceeding expectations; however, on the earnings day, even if the results are strong, if they fall short of this inflated consensus, the stock price will still decline.
Don't believe the myth that "Citibank is too conservative"—it's actually the most aggressive forecast on the board.
There’s a claim on social media that Citibank’s assumptions about storage pricing are too conservative, leading to expectations that Micron’s earnings report will significantly exceed forecasts. This reasoning gets the logic backwards—following it could lead to poor decisions.
According to TradingKey, Citigroup expects DRAM prices to rise approximately 200% for the full year in 2026, with quarter-over-quarter increases of 37%, 13%, and 11% in the second, third, and fourth quarters, respectively; NAND flash prices are forecast to rise about 186% for the full year, with quarter-over-quarter increases of 45%, 17%, and 6%. A 200% annual increase represents the most aggressive price forecast from Wall Street for memory storage—not a conservative one. Based on this outlook, Citigroup has raised its price target to $1,200, while Deutsche Bank has set an even higher target of $1,500. Both banks anticipate the memory shortage to persist through 2028.
The risk here is that even the most aggressive institutions have built their forecasts on a 200% increase—so the earnings report must surpass a bar that has already been repeatedly raised. Relying on "Citi underestimated" to beat expectations is logically unsound.
Gross profit margin reached approximately 81%, a historical high and the day's biggest uncertainty.
The most important metric to watch in the financial report is the gross margin.
According to TradingKey, Micron's own guidance projects revenue of $33.5 billion, plus or minus $750 million, earnings per share of approximately $19.15, and a gross margin of around 81%. This represents the highest gross margin in the company’s history and ranks among the top in the semiconductor industry. Last year’s net margin was 23.4%, while last quarter’s reached 58.8%—more than doubling profitability within a year, a magnitude rarely seen in the semiconductor sector.
The higher the gross margin, the more pronounced the sustainability concerns become. Micron has historically been one of the most cyclical stocks in the technology sector, as everyone is well aware of the boom-and-bust cycles in the storage industry. On earnings day, any indication that profit margins have peaked or that prices for major storage products are beginning to soften—even if revenue figures are strong—can put pressure on the stock price.
According to TIKR, Manish Bhatia, Executive Vice President of Global Operations at Micron, said at the J.P. Morgan conference that the company’s financial outlook is stronger than during the last earnings call, and this quarter is expected to set another record for free cash flow; supply constraints for HBM, DRAM, and NAND are projected to persist beyond 2026, with HBM4’s production ramp rate doubling that of HBM3E last year. These statements are optimistic but represent pre-earnings guidance; their accuracy will be verified by the actual data released on the day.
What determines the stock price direction is guidance, not this quarter's earnings.
This quarter's revenue and profits are likely to be strong, as the market has already anticipated this.
The stock's direction for the day hinges more on Micron’s guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter—whether sequential growth can continue is the key turning point. Second are the ramp-up progress of HBM and the 2027 capacity allocation, which will determine whether the narrative for next year remains viable.
In the history of the storage industry, the easiest time to get trapped is not during the worst performance, but when expectations are at their highest. Micron is currently at that peak of expectations. If you plan to act after the earnings report, first examine the guidance and HBM, then look at total revenue.