After a long period of weakness, meme coins have finally shown a promising rebound.
Since mid-September of last year, the total market capitalization of meme coins gradually declined from about $80 billion to a low of $35 billion, with little meaningful recovery along the way. However, entering 2026, in the first week of the year, the total market capitalization of meme coins finally rebounded, returning to nearly $50 billion.
During the same period, the market capitalization share of meme coins within the overall altcoin market approached a historical low since July 2022, dropping to around 3%. By 2026, this metric finally showed a rebound, returning to approximately 4%.
The recent warming trend in meme coins gives a sense of a "nostalgic server." It seems the market dynamics for meme coins have shifted back from "hunting new small-cap coins" to "classic old coins." In the past week, Pepe surged over 70%, and its 24-hour trading volume reached a shocking approximately $1.1 billion, surpassing 50% of Doge's 24-hour trading volume.
Doge, Shiba, Pepe, BONK, Pengu, SPX, and Fartcoin—these well-known large-cap, long-standing meme coins—have all experienced a general rise in the past week, with no one of them increasing by less than 20%. If this trend continues, based on past experience, we may once again witness a scenario similar to previous bull markets, where large-cap meme coins lead the charge, followed by the emergence of new rising stars in the meme coin space.
This time around, the meme coin market rebound has also been viewed by optimistic crypto players as the starting point of a new comprehensive bull market. Looking back at history, meme coin trends have often served as early indicators of shifts in market risk appetite. Examples include Doge in 2021, and the Bome and Pump.fun trends in 2024. Since meme coins are largely driven by sentiment, and they are easily discussed on social media, once their prices rise and positive discussions increase, it is easy for a widespread bullish atmosphere to form among retail investors.
If this bull market really does arrive, from the current moment in time, what angles can we consider to seize the new opportunities in this new bull market?
"Hottest Now": Attention Tokens
The warming up of the meme market has once again accelerated the rapid rotation of attention. White Whale's success is only over a week old, and its price is still maintaining near historical highs. However, a new "king dog" named "114514" has recently emerged. It just broke through a $40 million market cap to set a new historical record today, surging about 250 times in just two days.
The meme "114514" originates from a 2001 male-oriented adult film titled "BABYLON STAGE 34: A Summer Night's Lustful Dream the IMP," produced by the Japanese distributor COAT CORPORATION. In the film, an actor who plays the role of a "senpai" (senior) delivers particularly outstanding acting and lines. Notably, he shouts the line "Okay! Come on! (いいよ！こいよ! Ii yo! Koi yo!)" in the movie. Japanese netizens have since used the Japanese numerical homophones for this phrase, and it has been inserted into various meme images and videos.
Although the identity of this "senior" cannot be confirmed due to the confidentiality agreement with the production company, in 2011, a Japanese man named "Tadashi Tadokoro" was arrested for indecency. Because of his striking resemblance to the "senior," netizens naturally assumed that the "senior" was Tadashi Tadokoro. This meme became very popular in Chinese-speaking communities. When the number "114514" appears in comment sections, it is often accompanied by words related to "stink," such as "stinks" or "terrible stench." This originated from the assumption that the indecent crimes committed by Tadashi Tadokoro were truly repulsive. Additionally, the phrase "Good times, coming soon" is another deliberate translation of "114514."
It's hard to say there are any objectively analyzable reasons for the sudden surge of the old meme "114514" in the cryptocurrency space, but we can still make some predictions based on emotional overflow. Since there are no objective reasons, the direction of the emotional overflow for "114514" will depend on how the market interprets it and how capital allocates accordingly. It could be understood from the perspective of a Japanese meme, or alternatively, as a pure numerical meme like "42069."
In the game of attention tokens, it's not necessary to ask why; instead, you need to judge what others think, what kind of reasoning can be accepted by the majority as a buying force, and also consider luck.
"Long-termism": Classic Meme Coin
In this recent meme market rebound, the return of "classic meme coins" like Pepe, BONK, and Pengu has been a pleasant surprise. These high-market-cap meme coins, which have long withstood the test of time, haven't been back in the spotlight for a long time. Due to the popularity of attention-based games, people have become more accustomed to fast-paced speculation, to the point where terms like "diamond hands" have even taken on a somewhat mocking tone.
However, every truly comprehensive market cycle actually sees some excellent meme coins stand out, gaining market acceptance and recognition as "good coins." These coins maintain a high market capitalization in the long term and have a group of dedicated holders.
This is actually what meme coins have long needed, and it marks the true maturation of this sector. In Murad's proposed theory of a "meme coin supercycle," there is a set of criteria for evaluating the quality of meme coins—including the ability to maintain a mid- to large-scale market cap (over $5 million), having withstood the test of at least six months, possessing a clear and defined vision or goal, and the capacity to resonate emotionally with people, truly achieving holder retention and community cohesion.
According to this standard, besides the meme giants already considered "too big to fail" by the market, such as Doge, Shiba, Pepe, BONK, and Pengu, there are actually many other promising projects worth paying attention to. Some of the larger ones include SPX, Fartcoin, Mog, and BITCOIN (HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu), while smaller ones include neet, Chillhouse, Joe, and others.
In the game of classic meme coins, it is essential to detach from personal emotions and observe their social media and communities objectively and deeply. Meme coins that have grown to this stage are rare and easily identifiable. This is because it is already difficult for a meme coin to be operated in a long-term and stable manner. Either the community has already coalesced and can collectively produce content, or there is a well-resourced team with greater ambitions for sustainable development. The goals of these coins are no longer simply to stabilize the internal community and token supply; instead, they are considering how to attract external growth through multiple channels, based on having already achieved internal integration. They even aim to influence or change real-world issues from certain angles through meme culture.
"Revenue is King": Implementation of Token Rights
It has always been difficult to apply the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio logic from traditional stock markets to crypto projects that demonstrate attractive and stable income records. This is because token holders do not enjoy the same rights as shareholders, such as receiving dividends. Therefore, the concept of profit in the crypto space is more of a "hope" and serves a "narrative" function. This fragile "narrative" is further undermined by maximalists of meme coins, who argue that there is essentially no difference between altcoins and meme coins—altcoins are just meme coins.
Nevertheless, the revenue narrative still holds true in the crypto space. Looking further back, Uniswap and Aave remain among the top market capitalizations in the crypto industry. More recently, Hyperliquid's rapid growth has single-handedly raised the ceiling for the Perp DEX sector.
More encouragingly, since last year, we have seen some progress in the realization of token-based rights. For example, the long-stalled Uniswap fee toggle, which had repeatedly failed to activate, was finally successfully enabled. Additionally, although the Aave proposal regarding the transfer of brand asset control to token holders ended without approval, Aave Labs committed to sharing revenues generated externally with token holders, acknowledging that aligned incentives are crucial for both Aave Labs and AAVE holders.
Although there are still many legal and practical challenges in aligning tokens with equity rights, the improvement of governance models within the community and the awakening awareness of token holders already represent significant progress. If a market upturn follows, projects that better align the interests of income and stakeholders should gain more market recognition. This can be seen as an upgrade before income distribution truly moves from narrative to reality.
Conclusion
I hope the recent warming up of the meme market is indeed a prelude to a broader market rally. I also hope that if there is a comprehensive bull market, new stars will emerge, completing the "generation shift" in the crypto world.