May 2 Market Summary: Nasdaq Hits 25,000 for the First Time, Oil Falls Below $105

Author: Shenchao TechFlow

On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,114.44 points, marking the first time in human financial history that it entered the weekend above 25,000.

The S&P 500 rose 0.29% to 7,230.12, setting another all-time high. The Dow Jones fell 0.31% to 49,499.27, falling just 500 points short of the 50,000 milestone. The Russell 2000 gained 0.46%, and the VIX closed at 16.99, with panic sentiment remaining low.

This week, Wall Street achieved an almost unbelievable close: amid Brent crude surging intraday to $126, Powell departing with an 8-4 split vote, and the MAG4 collectively announcing a $725 billion investment, the S&P 500 ended the week higher, the Nasdaq ended the week higher, and the broader market held firm at all-time highs.

The logic driving Friday’s gains is the same as throughout April: still earnings, still Apple.

Apple rose another ~3% on Friday, turning its after-hours earnings boost from the previous night into official intraday gains. Alphabet’s 9% after-hours surge the day before had already been partially priced in on Thursday, and Apple continued to outperform the market on Friday. Qualcomm jumped 15%, lifting the entire semiconductor subsector, thanks to the statement: “Custom chip collaboration with a leading ultra-large customer is progressing as planned, with the first shipments expected this year.” Though unnamed, the market understood perfectly.

But the divergence was equally clear today. SanDisk serves as the most ironic example: Q1 revenue reached $5.95 billion, a significant year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of $23.41 far exceeded the expected $14.51; Q4 guidance of $775 million to $825 million also surpassed the market consensus of $665 million. From any perspective, this is an impressive performance. Yet the stock closed down about 5%. The reason is simple: since the beginning of the year, the stock has already risen over 360%, and the market chose to take profits on the good news. Whether the earnings report is strong or not doesn’t matter—what matters is how much the stock price rose ahead of the report.

Roblox plunged approximately 17%. The online gaming platform significantly lowered its full-year guidance, blaming its newly launched age verification system. To comply with regulatory requirements for child protection, Roblox began mandating age verification for U.S. users, leading to a significant loss of younger users amid friction. This is the first major public company casualty of the 2026-specific triangle of regulation, child safety, and growth targets.

Both energy giants Exxon and Chevron reported earnings that exceeded expectations, yet both also missed revenue forecasts due to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil production and transportation caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which limited output and actually hampered sales due to the war. Exxon’s net profit fell 45% year-over-year, while Chevron’s dropped 36%. Even as oil prices doubled, their own production was constrained by the war—this irony is profound.

Latest data from LSEG this week shows that over 80% of S&P 500 components have reported Q1 earnings; earnings growth expectations have been significantly raised from 16.1% before this earnings season to 27.8%, marking the strongest quarterly growth since Q4 2021. This is the most solid fundamental driver behind this market rally: not liquidity-driven, but profit-driven.

Friday’s oil prices were the most interesting trading day since the war began.

Pre-market, Iranian state media reported: Tehran submitted the latest revised peace negotiation documents to the U.S. via Pakistan on Thursday evening. Pakistani officials confirmed to the media that the documents have been delivered to the United States and expressed cautious optimism that "we are closer than ever to reaching an agreement."

This news directly erased the panic premium that Brent had accumulated from its previous day's high of $126. WTI crude fell over 3% to close at $101.94 per barrel, the first close below $102 in over two weeks. Brent declined about 2% to close at $108.17.

Then Trump appeared.

He told reporters at the White House: "Iran wants to talk, but I’m not satisfied with their proposal. Iran essentially has no army left." His tone was milder than in recent weeks, with no mention of "Black Hawks" or intensive strikes. The market interpreted this as a signal that negotiations have not ended, but are still in the bargaining phase.

On the same day, Trump publicly stated that he would ignore the 60-day congressional authorization deadline under the War Powers Resolution, calling the law "unconstitutional" and claiming that "past presidents have all exceeded it." Democrats in Congress began discussing whether to initiate legal challenges, but almost no one believed these efforts would constrain the war effort in the short term.

Oil prices have settled in the $102–108 range, a delicate middle ground: $126 was the panic price when the "intensive strike plan" was made public, $95 was the rebound price at the start of the war, and $108 is the realistic price reflecting negotiations that are alive but unresolved. Today, the market completed a meaningful price adjustment.

Gold edged up slightly to $4,625 per ounce on Friday, recovering about 1.6% from the two-day low of $4,550. As oil prices declined and the U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, gold gained some breathing room. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell from this week’s high of 4.41% to around 4.38%.

During this season, when the Bitcoin Conference has historically caused price fluctuations, the 2026 Las Vegas event gave the market an especially calm lesson.

The Bitcoin 2026 conference is taking place this week in Las Vegas. The lineup on stage is stellar: Eric Trump (Donald Trump’s second son and co-founder of American Bitcoin), Michael Saylor (CEO of Strategy), Senator Cynthia Lummis, Senator Bernie Moreno, along with a delegation representing the White House’s “AI and Crypto Czar,” delivering back-to-back speeches from some of America’s most influential Bitcoin advocates.

Eric Trump's exact words: "I have absolute conviction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. I don't know if it's 2030 or 2031, but it will happen." Saylor's target price is even higher. Everyone who took the stage talked about "the greatest era," "institutions flooding in," and "the government will never sell it."

Bloomberg reporters were on-site and published the most level-headed article of the week, titled: “Bitcoin Price Stalls Amid Las Vegas Bullish Chants.” The report noted that while all the celebrities on stage were shouting prices into microphones, Bitcoin remained stuck around $76,000, “the evangelism strategy has ceased to influence price.”

This is an exact description of the current state of this market.

But on Friday, a significant shift occurred: oil prices fell 3% due to Iran’s peace proposal, risk appetite improved, and Bitcoin rose from an early low of $76,130 to $78,147, closing up 2.41% for the day—a figure consistent with CoinGecko’s closing price and Yahoo Finance. Ethereum also rose approximately 2%, pushing the global crypto market cap back to around $2.68 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index rebounded from 39 (fear) at the start of the week to the 43–45 range (neutral to cautious).

The source of this price increase is not the row of microphones on stage, but an early price signal reflecting expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Malacca.

What made today’s Bitcoin price action particularly noteworthy was the conclusion of a research report released on the same day. Invezz cited data showing that since the outbreak of war on February 28, Bitcoin has risen approximately 20%, compared to an 8% gain in the S&P 500 and a 5% gain in gold—marking the first time in history that Bitcoin outperformed all traditional safe-haven assets during a major geopolitical conflict. BlackRock’s IBIT, Strategy, and institutional long-term positioning have acted as a floor during every panic sell-off triggered by oil price shocks.

There’s also a subtle signal: Morgan Stanley officially launched its Bitcoin ETF product (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, MSBT) this month, publicly recommending that clients allocate 2–4% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. With $7.35 trillion in assets under management, Morgan Stanley has now become a Bitcoin advocate.

On May 1st, the first trading day closed with a historically significant candle.

U.S. stocks: The Nasdaq closed at 25,114.44, surpassing 25,000 for the first time in history; the S&P 500 closed at 7,230.12; the Dow Jones fell 0.31% to close at 49,499.27. Apple rose 3%, Qualcomm rose 15%, and Alphabet gained further. Roblox dropped 17%, Sandisk fell 5%, and Meta continued to digest recent moves. Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported their Q1 earnings, with expected earnings growth rising to 27.8%, the strongest since 2021.

Oil/Gold: Iran submits a new peace proposal through Pakistan; Brent falls 2% to $108.17, WTI drops 3% to close at $101.94, down $17 from its high of $126. Trump says he is "unsatisfied," but the rhetoric on war has clearly softened. Gold rebounds slightly to $4,625.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin trades at $78,147, up 2.41% on the day—marking its first significant rebound this week, driven by improved risk appetite following Iran’s peace proposal, not million-dollar shouts from the Las Vegas conference. Global crypto market cap stands at approximately $2.68 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index at 43, recovering from the fear zone.

The market is now focused on only one question: Did Trump actually take in this new proposal?

Iran's latest documents are said to have made concessions on the issue of "delaying nuclear talks," which was the core sticking point that Trump previously rejected. If this round leads to substantive negotiations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could happen faster than anyone expects; if Trump continues to refuse, within the next 60 days he will face not only Iran but also disputes in Congress over war powers authorization and whether oil prices can withstand higher levels.

By this Friday at the latest, one thing is certain: $108 Brent is the market’s pricing in of “negotiations are not dead.” Compared to $126, that $17 gap is the world economy’s most expensive breath of relief.