As we move into 2026, the market phase in which Bitcoin finds itself is different from the early rebounds in previous cycles. Although there are recent signs of technical recovery, a more cautiously optimistic stance may be appropriate at the tactical level. However, from a structural perspective, the conditions necessary to support a sustained bull market remain insufficient. Historical experience shows that once the price breaks below the one-year moving average, it often enters a more challenging phase. Combined with weakening incremental capital and slowing inflows, this cycle is more likely to transition into a market environment where selective opportunities and strict trading discipline are essential.
Continuation of Bluefin Tuna's Share Reduction: Orderly Distribution of Shares but Indicating a High Price Range
On-chain data indicates that long-term holders are still continuously and orderly distributing their holdings. After the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, "super whales" increased their buying activity during the initial pullback phase. However, since October 2024, their behavior has clearly shifted, moving from "accumulation" to "distribution." On a cumulative basis, this group has collectively sold approximately $6.1 billion worth of Bitcoin since then, and they have continued to maintain a net selling position over the past 30 days.
This selling pressure has largely been absorbed by a moderate-sized whale group, causing the price to exhibit a back-and-forth tug-of-war within a high range, rather than a typical rapid price surge or panic-driven liquidation. Unlike the indiscriminate selling that followed the peak in spring 2021, this round of selling has been more orderly and aligns more closely with the behavior of sophisticated capital in the later stages of a cycle. This suggests that Bitcoin has at least entered the cyclical top range.
Weak incremental funds: Prices are close to the TMMP, limiting upward momentum.
From a capital perspective, the core constraint in this market cycle remains the insufficient inflow of new funds. The 30-day net increase in Bitcoin's realized capitalization has continuously declined since peaking at the end of 2024. Although the price has rebounded multiple times in 2025, the capital situation has already weakened beforehand. This divergence explains why previous price increases have struggled to be sustained, and it also suggests that the current rebound is still built on a relatively weak capital foundation.
Meanwhile, the slowdown in new address growth indicates that the market has yet to attract a large number of new investors, and broad participation from retail traders has not yet materialized. The current Bitcoin price is close to the True Market Median Price (TMMP), suggesting that the willingness of incremental buyers to chase higher prices is limited. Historically, sustained price increases often require the price to move significantly away from the TMMP, accompanied by synchronized inflows of capital for confirmation. If capital inflows fail to follow, the price is more likely to consolidate and oscillate near the TMMP rather than continue rising to open up further upward potential.
Overall, although technical corrections have allowed tactical positions to become relatively more positive, this current upward move should be viewed as a tactical rebound rather than the beginning of a new structural uptrend. Bitcoin still faces core constraints, including insufficient inflows of new capital and continued selling by super whales, which will likely continue to limit its upside potential. In this environment, market opportunities are more likely to be short-term and trade-oriented, rather than forming a smooth, sustained trend. Compared to previous cycles, the number of new participants in this cycle has been relatively small. Whether the market can sustain a rebound depends not on "how many people are involved," but on "how much new capital is entering." Given the current lack of strong capital inflows, risk management and discipline should take precedence over long-term bullish positions.
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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.