MarsBit: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Highlight Persistent Uncertainty in Global Markets

HuoXing Finance reports that on May 26, while global markets continue to trade on optimistic expectations of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, military conflict has flared up again near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that the current Middle East situation remains fundamentally in a phase of “negotiating while maneuvering and applying pressure.” The U.S. military confirmed it conducted “defensive strikes” against Iranian missile facilities and mining vessels, while Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement, revealing that the so-called peace framework is still far from achieving true stability. The core focus of the market currently lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can truly resume normal operations. Although multiple media outlets have begun disclosing draft details—including restoring navigation within 30 days, easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports, partially unfreezing overseas assets, and extending the ceasefire by 60 days—Iran and the U.S. have yet to fully align on nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and control of the strait. This is why market sentiment toward a peace agreement has begun to show clear fatigue, even resembling a “boy who cried wolf” reaction. From an asset performance perspective, oil prices dropped sharply before rebounding, and U.S. Treasury yields rose again during Asian trading after an earlier pullback, indicating that while capital has briefly bet on de-escalation, it remains highly vigilant regarding Middle East risks and global inflationary pressures. Particularly, if the Strait of Hormuz fails to fully resume normal shipping, energy and supply chain pressures will continue to constrain global central banks’ policy space. A deeper issue is that markets are increasingly accepting one reality—even if hostilities eventually subside, the high-interest-rate environment may not end quickly. Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials, combined with market repricing of rate hike expectations, suggest global capital no longer fully trusts that “central banks will always rescue markets,” as they once did. In the crypto market, BTC has recently remained range-bound. According to liquidation heatmaps, significant short liquidity remains clustered around $78,000–$78,200, while clear long liquidation zones have accumulated near $75,500 and $74,200. This indicates that the current market structure still favors high-leverage tug-of-war dynamics, with capital lacking a true consensus on a directional trend. Until macroeconomic uncertainty is resolved, the crypto market will remain a highly sensitive barometer for global liquidity and risk appetite rather than an independent force. Especially as markets begin to question whether policy still has the capacity to fully stabilize markets, the era of high volatility may have only just begun.