Markets are leaning heavily toward a Federal Reserve pause following this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, with traders signaling little belief that policymakers will pivot under pressure at the April 29, 2026, meeting.
Markets Show Little Faith in Fed Rate Cuts After March
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell sits in office, until his term expires on May 15, 2026, markets do not believe the U.S. central bank will lower the federal funds rate. Meanwhile, President Trump has continued to publicly and persistently press Powell to lower interest rates.
Following the FOMC’s latest decision to keep the rate unchanged, Trump responded on Truth Social. “When is ‘Too Late’ Powell lowering INTEREST RATES?” the U.S. President asked. While Trump continues to advocate for such a move, markets assign a very low probability to it occurring in April.
The latest readings from the CME Fedwatch tool show a 92.8% probability that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate in the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. A 25-basis-point hike carries just 7.2% odds, while expectations for a rate cut remain effectively nonexistent.
That conviction has strengthened in recent weeks. One day earlier, markets were fully aligned at 100% odds for no change, while a week ago the probability stood at 95.7%. A month ago, confidence was notably lower at 78.9%.
The March FOMC decision appears to have cemented that outlook. By holding rates steady and reiterating a data-dependent approach, policymakers signaled patience rather than Trump’s urgency—an approach traders now expect to continue.
Prediction markets echo the same conclusion. A Kalshi contract tied to the April decision show roughly 94% odds that rates remain unchanged, with only marginal interest in either tightening or easing.
Trading activity reinforces the message. Nearly $2.9 million has been placed on the outcome, with the “no change” position maintaining dominant pricing as the April resolution approaches.
On Polymarket, the signal is even clearer. Odds for holding rates steady reach as high as 96%, suggesting bettors are not expecting the Fed to fold in response to political pressure or short-term economic noise.
Liquidity has been significant, with more than $13 million in total volume across outcomes. Even scenarios with slim probabilities—such as aggressive rate cuts—have attracted capital, pointing to hedging behavior rather than conviction in a policy shift.
The broader outlook for 2026 reinforces the same theme. At least, Polymarket traders are not pricing in an aggressive easing cycle, with the most likely outcome being zero rate cuts throughout the year at a 31% probability.
Expectations taper gradually from there. One cut is priced at 26%, followed by two cuts at 18% and three cuts at 11%, while more aggressive paths barely register in market pricing.
The data suggests traders are preparing for a prolonged holding pattern rather than a rapid pivot. But that could change in May. The Fed’s latest messaging, at least Powell’s, appears to have anchored expectations firmly in place.
For now, the message from markets is blunt: after March’s hold, the Fed is expected to stay the course in April—and traders are not betting on a sudden change of heart.
FAQ 🔎
- What changed after the March 2026 Fed meeting?
Markets strengthened their expectation that the Fed will continue holding rates steady. - Do traders expect a rate cut in April 2026?
No, current pricing shows near-zero probability of a cut at the next meeting. - Why do markets think the Fed won’t pivot?
The Fed emphasized a data-dependent approach, signaling patience rather than urgency. - How many rate cuts are expected in 2026?
Markets currently favor zero cuts, with only modest chances for limited easing.