BlockBeats news: On January 28, according to the CME FedWatch data, before the interest rate decision is announced tonight, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at only 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates—i.e., a pause in rate cuts—is at 97.2%. Additionally, the market is beginning to worry whether, after this "certain" pause in rate cuts, the Federal Reserve will enter a prolonged period of observation, and whether this pause in rate cuts might quietly signal the end of the rate-cutting cycle.
Current data shows that by the end of 2026, the probability of no interest rate cuts for the entire year is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points of rate cuts is 28.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points of rate cuts is 33%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis points of rate cuts is 19.8%, the probability of a cumulative 100 basis points of rate cuts is 6.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 125 basis points of rate cuts is 1.3%.