According to PolyBeats monitoring, following Trump’s statement that the U.S. Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz and intercept all vessels paying transit fees to Iran, market expectations for oil prices have risen again. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that WTI crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on a single trading day this month has become likely, currently at 57%; the probability of exceeding $120 per barrel is 40%, $130 per barrel is 23%, and $150 per barrel is 8%. Additionally, market data shows that WTI crude oil closed at $95.74 per barrel on the previous trading day.
Market raises oil price expectations; WTI crude likely to surpass $115/barrel
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Summary
Market sentiment has shifted as on-chain data reveals rising expectations for oil prices, with Trump claiming the U.S. Navy would block the Strait of Hormuz and intercept vessels paying tolls to Iran. On Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude reaching $115/barrel this month is now 57%, with certain altcoins potentially reacting to energy market volatility. WTI closed at $95.74/barrel in the previous session.
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