The former deputy commander of the Royal Air Force stated that a compromise agreement between the U.S. and Iran appears inevitable, with Iran likely to gain the upper hand. The Polymarket contract announcing the end of U.S. military actions against Iran by April 30 is currently at...14.5%Yes, it has decreased from 32% 24 hours ago.
This market on April 30 has dropped significantly, falling from 38% over the past week to14.5%Yes. Traders are skeptical of any diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline, and the falling stock prices indicate they want to see concrete signals—such as scheduled talks or mediator activity—before pushing prices higher.
The market has a daily notional value of $213,788 and an actual trading volume of $68,607. The order book shows that a 5-point price movement requires $4,074, making it difficult for small trades to influence the price. The largest price movement in the past 24 hours occurred at 6:59 PM, when the price briefly rose by 5 points but did not sustain the upward trend.
Each YES share is priced at $0.145, with a potential payout of $1 per share if the military action ends before April 30.6.9xReturn. For this trade to make sense, you need to believe that an official ceasefire statement will be issued within the next nine days. The gap between the RAF commander’s assessment (“inevitable”) and the market’s 14.5% price is precisely where this trade stands, but without a timeline, the term “inevitable” holds little meaning when the contract expires on April 30.
Closely monitor statements from intermediaries such as the Sultan of Oman or Qatar, and any official confirmation regarding the resumption of negotiations. Given the current low order volume, any statement from either party could quickly lead to the signing of this contract.
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