Macro Trader Analyzes Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook Focusing on US Liquidity and Fed Policies

As per NewsBTC, macro trader plur daddy (@plur_daddy) outlines four key macroeconomic themes that could influence Bitcoin in 2026. He argues that Bitcoin's performance will depend more on the normalization of US liquidity conditions than on crypto-specific catalysts. The trader highlights the Fed’s reserve management purchases (RMPs), fiscal incrementality, disinflation, and potential political shifts as crucial factors. He notes that the Fed’s RMPs aim to relieve funding pressure, not drive a risk-on rally, and that incremental fiscal expansion and regulatory changes could provide modest support. Disinflation is seen as a 'Goldilocks setup' that could allow the Fed to continue cutting rates. The trader also speculates on the potential impact of a Trump administration and a possible Kevin Hassett Fed chair nomination, which could favor gold and possibly equities. For Bitcoin, he remains cautiously constructive if macro conditions align, but prefers gold over crypto due to the latter's mental capital drain.