Late Entry Costs in Prediction Markets: A Study on Golden Entry Windows
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Summary
A recent on-chain analysis by Hubble AI examined 2,023 on-chain data points from Polymarket to evaluate the cost of delayed entry in prediction markets. The study found that the first 10 minutes of high-liquidity events capture 96% of the informational edge, after which alpha declines rapidly. Events fall into three categories—sudden confirmation, strategic revision, and pre-priced—each with distinct decay curves. For instance, alpha in sudden confirmation events, such as the Maduro arrest, fades within 2 minutes, while strategic revision events, like the SVB acquisition, offer up to 6 hours of opportunity.
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