Japan’s Kioxia Holdings Corporation (285A) stock crashed 45% in a month, but Wall Street analysts still expect it to climb another 118% from here.
That gap raises an obvious question. Why do so many analysts still back a stock that crashed this fast?
The Bull Case Analysts Are Sticking To
Kioxia shares fell to a low of ¥52,110 last Friday, but have managed a small comeback, up nearly 9%, to ¥55,860 on Tuesday, July 21. However, this still leaves the stock down 42% for the month, currently.
This is especially noteworthy given Kioxia hit a record high of ¥111,250 on June 22, making it briefly Japan’s largest company by market cap, overtaking Toyota.
Despite this boom-and-bust, Kazuyoshi Saito, senior analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities, still holds his target at ¥132,000.
“The fundamentals have not changed at all,” Saito said.
He argues the AI-driven demand story remains solid. He expects the shares to recover once technical selling fades.
Meanwhile, Nomura Securities raised its target from ¥115,000 to ¥126,000 last week. Huaxing Research lifted its target above ¥100,000 around the same time. The consensus target near ¥121,959 implies about 118% upside from Tuesday’s close.
Why the Bulls Look Out of Step With the Chart
Kioxia’s chart doesn’t look like a stock about to rally 118%. The stock’s boom-to-bust reversal has wiped out most of this year’s gains.
Some analysts say the memory stock rally has run too far, not just cooled off.
In contrast, Ikio Mitsuishi, portfolio manager at Aizu Securities, expects Kioxia to stay weak until at least late August. He said investors may avoid piling back into one stock so fast. Many could rotate into cheaper, less volatile names instead.
A Pattern That Goes Beyond Kioxia
Kioxia isn’t the only Asian chipmaker swinging this hard. SK Hynix’s Nasdaq-listed shares have surged more than 20% in a day, then dropped double digits days later.
The wider chip selloff across Japan has erased trillions of yen in market value this month.
The real test for Kioxia bulls isn’t the target price. It’s whether Asia’s chip-stock volatility settles down before earnings season arrives.