All eyes will be on the PCE inflation report this week, following last week’s CPI, and the Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday.
January’s CPI came in slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at 2.38% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021. This boosted the stock and crypto markets on Friday, but gains in the latter were soon eroded over the weekend.
“Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain, and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated,” said the Kobeissi Letter, cautioning of “more volatility this week.”
Economic Events Feb. 16 to 20
Traditional markets are closed in the US on Monday for the President’s Day holiday.
There is an ADP employment update on Tuesday, followed by the January Retail Sales report. Wednesday sees more consumer spending data with the delayed December Durable Goods Orders numbers.
The Fed meeting minutes are also released on Wednesday, and there will be 10 central bank speaker events, which could shed light on future monetary policy decisions.
Investors will also get an early look at economic growth for the fourth quarter with the Thursday release of the GDP report.
However, the big data of the week is the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report.
Based on the January CPI data, Goldman Sachs raised its PCE outlook, according to reports.
“We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.40% in January,” said economists.
The growth projections were due to rising consumer electronics and IT prices, which are more heavily weighted in PCE than CPI. A global RAM and storage shortage due to AI data center demand has caused computer and component prices to surge.
“So far, data doesn’t offer much reason for the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in March,” wrote The Street.
The CME Fed Watch Tool has a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets have lost last week’s late gains, with total capitalization dropping 2.5% over the past 24 hours in a fall back to $2.41 trillion.
Bitcoin failed to hold above $70,000 for long and retreated to $68,300 in early Asian trading on Monday. The asset has remained rangebound for the past ten days.
Ether prices have tanked hard, shedding 5% from almost $2,100 back to $1,950 at the time of writing, while the altcoins continue to bleed out.
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